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A forecast for the April 25 parliamentary elections

6 Prill 2021, 18:27, English CNA
A forecast for the April 25 parliamentary elections

By Elvi Fundo

Elections are no more than three weeks away. The Renaissance Socialists seek a third term, the New Republic Democrats seek to come to power by running in a separate coalition, but also by announcing an alliance with Ilir Meta?s SMI.

But let?s make a prediction on these elections, based on many public indicators. In all polls, it turns out that almost 60 percent of citizens seem dissatisfied with the government. This attitude is very normal after 8 years, and the figures should have been even higher.

The country was struck by an unheard pandemic in at least 100 years, and by a devastating earthquake, the last of which occurred nearly half a century ago. Both of these events had a significant impact, from the movements of Edi Rama to the strong reactions of Basha. An enraged Basha burned the mandates of the deputies and didn?t enter the local elections of 2019.

After the earthquake on November 26, 2019, Basha put on another mask and returned to institutions. He went from the position ?there are no more elections with Edi Rama?, to ?we go to the elections with anyone, but we have won them?. Only Luli Basha knows what has changed since then.

On the other hand, even though he was hit by two disasters one after the other, Rama turned them into symbols of his election campaign, i.e. post-earthquake reconstruction and pandemic management. Meanwhile, the behavior of the DP and Basha himself seemed infantile, completely weak in reaction.

Attacks and worthless accusations about the reconstruction, but also about the management of the pandemic, up to the calls not to vaccinate the citizens, or mocking tens of millions of investments euros such as that of Fier, the hospital that was being built by the Turkish government.

Monika Kryemadhi and Lulzim Basha ironically called as a stable a facility where there

will be tens of millions of euros of equipment, which are actually missing in our existing hospitals. Predicting what will happen on April 25 is not very difficult.

This is not because of the polls, but because of what we said above, the perception of the people about the government, where it seems that 60 percent are dissatisfied. But there is another detail: there is a dissatisfaction with the government, but this doesn?t pass directly as a vote in favor of Lulzim Basha.

So if that dissatisfaction with the government is great, Basha and Rama, have a difference of at least 10-12 percent from each other. Even after 8 years in power, the incumbent Prime Minister still enjoys greater support than his rival. Today, after 8 years in power, it shouldn?t have been discussed whether Rama would leave power or not.

Rama should have left now, maybe even shamefully with a deep loss, But this is impossible. Rama has recovered quite a bit of ground, and has used in his favor the two tragedies that Albania has had, the earthquake and the global pandemic, facing a rival without axis and essence like Lulzim Basha.

While Basha tries to say what he said in 2017, but in a different way. He doesn?t arouse enthusiasm at all, no one believes him. Even Edi Rama is not believed so much by Albanians. But the management of 2 serious crises, pandemic and earthquake, can be called positive in the perception of the public, which shows that there is a difference, and therefore Edi Rama leads in every race.

Lulzim Basha lags behind again, and his only hope is the SMI. So for the DP to secure 60-64 seats alone, and the SMI to get at least 10-12, and so the opposition can win. But this account made by Lulzim Basha and the people close to him, seems a stupid mistake, because of the lies that come from the base, and the way which work the electorate or the structures of the DP.

Basha hopes that there will be a reversal of the results in Korça or Berat, or that he will get more mandates in Elbasan, which seems very difficult. According to simple calculations, it seems that in the north, ie in Kukës, Shkodër, Lezhë and Dibër the opposition, SMI plus DP cannot secure more than 8 seats, also due to the votes they have, or even the small number of seats that have these regions.

Meanwhile, the south has a larger number of seats. The loss in the north, the majority recovers in Vlora and Fier, counting then Korca, Berat and Elbasan, where it is favored. In these regions the current majority has a certain number of seats, 4-5 seats plus, or maybe something more too.

On the other hand, even the result in Durrës is a draw or the majority will lost, again for the latter there are 2-3 safe mandates. Then there is Tirana, the region where will be made the difference, and where the majority of Edi Rama currently has about 18 seats.

Everything seems clear, Edi Rama will have at least 3-5 more seats on the table. This forecast is a calculation made by CNA.al staff regarding the distribution of mandates and votes in the constituencies, but also from what most polls reflect.

But there may be mandates for Tom Doshi of the SDP, or even the Movement for Change of Jozefina Topalli and the Democratic Conviction of Astrit Patozi. But Doshi seems the safest of all. Lulzim Basha and the opposition will waste a lot of votes.

Because the votes that will receive the small parties, will be translated at the end as a vote against Rama and against Basha, and therefore will be less chance for the opposition. One factor that could harm this divided opposition between Basha and Kryemadhi is the votes of the SMI in many constituencies, where in some places it can secure a mandate, and in others not. However, the opposition is entering a divided election, and for everything the blame will fall on Lulzim Basha./CNA.al

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