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Iran war raises airfares

2026-04-02 08:38:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The rise in fuel prices as a result of the Iran war is starting to have a direct impact on the airline industry worldwide. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the price of a barrel of kerosene has increased significantly, doubling on average since the end of February.

Aviation expert Cord Schellenberg told Tagesschau that kerosene is a specific product that is produced in limited quantities and has a relatively limited market. This, according to him, makes the market very sensitive to large price fluctuations. As a result, the increase in the price of kerosene is also expected to be reflected in the prices of airline tickets.

Reducing the number of flights

In addition to higher prices, passengers may also face fewer travel options. Schellenberg predicts that in the coming months, airlines will begin to cancel flights that are not economically viable.

This trend has already begun. United Airlines has announced that it will cut about 5% of its planned capacity this year. Asian carriers, such as Vietnam Airlines, will also reduce the number of flights due to the shortage of kerosene.

Europe is one of the most exposed regions

Ryanair has also issued warnings. Its chief executive Michael O'Leary said that if the conflict continues, European airlines could face fuel shortages by early summer. He said that if the fighting continues into May, 10-20% of fuel supplies could be at risk during the summer months, forcing airlines to cancel flights or reduce capacity.

IATA has warned that Europe is one of the regions most exposed to potential kerosene shortages, as around 25–30% of its requirements are based on supplies from the Persian Gulf.

Increase in the price of plane tickets

The impact of the conflict has been exacerbated by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global oil and gas. This has further increased energy prices and supply concerns.

Although the impact on ticket prices has been limited so far, they are expected to increase by 3 to 4% from April to June, while the situation remains uncertain if the conflict continues. /DW