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Births suffer record decline/ Experts: China will lose half of its current population by 2100

2026-01-19 08:48:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Births suffer record decline/ Experts: China will lose half of its current

China's population declined in 2024 for the fourth consecutive year, as the birth rate fell to a record low, despite the government rolling out a series of incentives to boost it.

The birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 inhabitants - a record low since the Communist Party took power in 1949 - while the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 inhabitants, the highest since 1968.

Faced with an aging population and a sluggish economy, Beijing has tried hard to encourage more young people to marry and have children.

In 2016, China abandoned its early one-child policy and replaced it with a two-child limit. When that didn't lead to a steady increase in births, authorities announced they would allow up to three children per couple by 2021.

Recently, China has offered parents 3,600 yuan ($500) for each child under the age of three. Some provinces are also giving their own bonuses for babies, including extra payments and extended maternity leave.

Some of these incentives have sparked controversy. For example, a new 13% tax on contraceptives, including condoms, pills and birth control devices, has raised concerns about unwanted pregnancies and HIV rates.

China has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, while other economies in the region, such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, have similarly low fertility rates. China is also one of the most expensive countries to raise a child, according to a 2024 report by the Yuwa Population Research Institute in Beijing.

Experts at the United Nations believe China's population will continue on a declining trajectory, estimating that the nation will lose more than half of its current population by 2100. A shrinking population has economic and social implications for the world's second-largest economy: exacerbating an already shrinking workforce and weak consumer sentiment.

With many young people moving away from their parents, there are also a growing number of older people being left to fend for themselves or rely on government payments.

But pension funds are running out, according to the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the country is running out of time to create enough funds to care for its growing elderly population. /CNA