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Iran's military's central command announced a halt to airstrikes against Israel, stating that it had given "a painful response" to Israel over Israeli attacks on Beirut's Dahijeh district - but warned that any continuation of Israeli aggression would produce "even more intense and devastating" retaliation.
The June 8 announcement came shortly after US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that "both sides, Israel and Iran, are aiming to reach an immediate ceasefire," adding that final negotiations for a US-Iran peace deal are continuing and that the US blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place until a final agreement is reached.
In its statement, the Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters did not itself declare a ceasefire, but rather an operation ended, with certain conditions. It presented the cessation of fighting not as a reduction in tensions, but as a message sent, in an attempt to maintain the image of strength, while aiming to de-escalate the escalation signaled by Washington.
This is exactly the operation that analysts had been describing even as the attacks were being carried out. Iran had put a specific threat on the table: if Dahijehi, where Iran’s Lebanese ally is based, was attacked, then Iran would strike northern Israel. When Israel struck the suburbs of Beirut, Tehran had little choice but to turn the threat into action, or lose the credibility of any future threats it makes.
"This action was largely about maintaining the credibility of a threat that Iran had made public earlier," Mohammad Ghaedi, a lecturer at George Washington University, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Farda. "The responses are limited, and neither side wants this to lead to a full-scale war."
Mehrdad Khansari, a London-based analyst and former Iranian diplomat, sees the situation similarly.
Tehran's calculation, he said, rests on a certain reading of Washington's constraints - that the United States, facing the UN General Assembly, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and a shaken global economy - would pressure Israel to limit its response.
"Iran is demonstrating its capacity," Khansari said. "The message is: I am standing firm, I am protecting my allies, and I will not allow you to exploit what you perceive as weakness."
The statement issued by Iran follows this logic.
It is designed to look like restraint, while simultaneously raising the stated ceiling for the next round – the phrase “much more intense and devastating than before” ensures that today’s withdrawal is not read as a surrender.
What Iran has achieved, if this lull in fighting holds, is a return to the status quo ante, with its deterrence posture nominally maintained. It has fulfilled a public pledge, weathered any Israeli backlash that might come, and withdrawn before the escalation became something neither side could control.
The question now is whether Israel will accept the same way out.
Trump's post on Truth Social suggested that both sides were moving toward an immediate ceasefire, but Israeli officials have, during this conflict, at times acted independently of Washington's demands.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said on June 7 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "will have no other choice" but to accept any deal the United States reaches with Iran.
"I make the decisions. I make all the decisions. He doesn't make the decisions," Trump said, despite Israel carrying out strikes on Iran in the early hours of June 8./REL
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