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Turning point/ What happens when deaths exceed births?

2026-05-02 11:39:00, Sociale CNA

Turning point/ What happens when deaths exceed births?

A new analysis of global demographic trends shows that many developed countries are facing a significant decline in birth rates and a continued increase in the elderly population, a phenomenon that is changing the social and economic structure around the world.

In countries like Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom, the consequences of this change are already visible.

Specialized companies are cleaning the homes of elderly people who died alone, villages in Italy are selling houses at symbolic prices to attract new residents, while in Britain school closures are becoming increasingly frequent due to falling student numbers.

According to demographers, in many European Union countries, the number of deaths is already exceeding births, a trend that is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. In the United Kingdom, for example, it is predicted that by 2026 there will be more deaths than births each year.

Researchers point out that this change is the result of two main factors: increased life expectancy and declining fertility rates, which in many countries have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Experts warn that the consequences are numerous: labor shortages, pressure on pension and health systems, and slowing economic growth. Meanwhile, societies are facing the need to reorganize the way people work, retire, and care for the elderly.

However, demographic change is not seen as sudden, but as a long process that has already entered an advanced stage. Experts emphasize that the solution does not lie only in increasing birth rates, but in adapting social and economic systems to the new reality.

Migration is seen as a short-term mitigating factor, but not a sustainable solution, as migrant populations also age over time.

According to demographers, the main challenge for governments in the coming decades will be adapting to an increasingly older and lower-birthrate world by reformatting labor, education and social care systems./ CNA





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