Minus 52 thousand votes: How is the decline of LDK explained?

2025-12-31 15:25:26, Kosova & Bota CNA

About 52 thousand fewer votes, or minus five seats in the Kosovo Assembly – this is the balance of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), if we compare the two parliamentary elections held this year.

The factors that influenced this decline in support for the LDK from the electorate are numerous, according to experts on political developments.

But, according to them, the main ones are "the improper approach of the party leadership", the party's failure to act "according to the expectations of the electorate" and the "marginalization of old structures", which attract traditional voters of this party.

Preliminary results published by the Central Election Commission (CEC) show that in the early parliamentary elections, on December 28, 119,201 citizens voted for the LDK, or 13.57 percent of voters.

In the regular parliamentary elections on February 9, LDK received the support of 171,357 Kosovars, or 18.27 percent of those who voted that day.

Analyst Imer Mushkolaj tells Radio Free Europe that the main reason why the LDK suffered a "major decline" in the December 28 elections began 11 months ago.

He recalls the position that the LDK leader, Lumir Abdixhiku, had announced at the time, that his party would not enter into a coalition either with the Vetëvendosje Movement (LVV), which had won 42 percent of the votes in February, or with the other two parties, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), for an eventual government of the former opposition camp at the time.

LDK rejected LVV's offer for a partnership in government.

"It is precisely the improper approach of the party leadership... I am convinced that this has had an enormous impact on the logic of how LDK voters vote and how they voted, because for me it makes no sense that a party, which exists to come to power - like any other party - simply closes its doors to itself," Mushkolaj emphasizes.

In the early parliamentary elections of 2021, the LDK received only 12.73 percent of the vote. However, it improved in the February 9 elections, increasing by 5 percentage points.

Analyst Rrahman Paçarizi believes that when voters return to a party, they also expect action from it.

"Meanwhile, the LDK's action has not happened at all, or it has not happened as expected or perceived by those voters who thought and hoped that the LDK would be part of the institutions," Paçarizi tells Radio Free Europe.

He adds that the LDK has failed to build its narrative after the February 9 elections, which were followed by months of delay in the constitution of the Assembly. The LVV, as the winner of the February 9 elections, failed to form a new government on its own, which sent the country to early elections at the end of the year.

However, the trend of declining LDK voter numbers, according to Paçariz, had started about five years ago.

Abdixhiku's arrival at the head of the party in 2021 also meant a new team of his most trusted people in the party's leadership structures.

Efforts to renew the party, says Paçarizi, did not produce good results in retaining the electorate.

"I think that the LDK has neglected its oldest structures, which are now almost marginalized and are dormant structures. The voters of these structures do not become anyone else's electorate, but refuse to come out to vote for the LDK," Paçarizi emphasizes.

Mushkolaj also expresses a similar opinion, who also sees the marginalization of some of the people from the oldest structures of the LDK as the cause of the decline in the number of voters for this party.

"Let's not forget that the profile of LDK voters is also middle-aged and elderly people, who over the years have associated LDK with these people. So, don't expect them to vote for LDK. The least they can do is abstain from voting and not vote for LDK."

The decline in the number of LDK voters in 2021, the return of a number of them in the February 9 elections, and the subsequent decline in the December 28 elections, show that many of these voters belong to the "gray zone" of the electorate.

Paçarizi explains that this electorate is undefined for any political party. According to him, the LDK managed to gain a good percentage of this electorate from 2021 until February 2025, when the elections were held.

But, as he says, within the last 11 months, the LDK failed to mobilize this electorate in its direction.

"There was a lack of effort to invite, to appeal to voters to jump into the 'gray zone' between political parties. They are emancipated voters, who see the programs of political parties. This has been fatal for the LDK, which has returned to its 2021 result," emphasizes Paçarizi.

Meanwhile, Mushkolaj estimates that a large number of undecided voters voted for LDK on February 9. But, over the last 11 months, they changed their minds.

"A large number of these people who voted for LDK on February 9 have returned to the Vetëvendosje Movement. I think this happened because they did not see in LDK the stability and seriousness of a party to come to power, whether with the opposition or with the winning party," he says.

On the evening of December 28, after the announcement of preliminary results by the CEC, the LDK leader accepted responsibility for his party's low result in these elections.

He warned that the LDK will soon hold a general assembly to address further steps, and did not rule out the possibility of his resignation.

Regarding this issue, Radio Free Europe contacted LDK officials, but they were not willing to comment on possible developments within the party.

Political observers see Abdixhiku's warnings as a step towards his resignation. They believe that within the LDK there are people with ambitions to take the helm of the LDK, but the question still remains who the next leader could be.

Mushkolaj emphasizes that the eventual change of the LDK leadership should also mean a change in the current approach of the party's leadership.

"If there is an approach similar to Abdixhiku's, I don't think that LDK can stand up and be a strong and serious party in the race against [Albin] Kurti and the Vetëvendosje Movement," Mushkolaj stressed.

The homogenization of the LDK electorate, according to Paçariz, requires a leader who must have a unifying approach across the party's structures.

But, as he estimates, despite the ambitions of some people to take over the leadership of the LDK, the survival of this party will be difficult.

"When it is known that the next elections will likely be in four years, then it is unlikely that there will be a leader who will willingly take over the party and manage to keep the LDK electorate excited for four years, in order to achieve any results," says Paçarizi.

Preliminary results made LDK the third party in the December 28 elections.

It is expected to have 15 seats in the Assembly, unlike the February 9 elections, when it won 20.

The Vetëvendosje Movement has currently secured 56 seats in the Assembly, PDK 21, AAK 6, while another 20 seats are guaranteed for non-majority communities./REL