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"The war will surely last until 2025"

2023-08-20 15:34:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Perhaps the war in Ukraine could end around 2025, predicts the German military expert, Gustav Gressel urges not to waste time on meaningless debates, but to move forward with the production of armaments.

Since February 24, 2022, the war in Ukraine is in the focus of the German media. German military experts have regularly given assessments on the progress of the fighting, on the capacities and weaknesses of the Russian army, the need to supply Ukraine with weapons to face Russian aggression, but recently they have focused on the Ukrainian offensive, which has lagged behind expectations. The expert, Gustav Gressel, researcher at the European Council for Foreign Affairs in Berlin, expresses skepticism towards the offensive.

"The war will surely last until 2025"

For the television portal, ARD, tagesschau, he said that this offensive has clearly fallen behind what was expected at the beginning, as well as its own objectives to reach the coast of the Sea of ??Azov and separate Crimea from Russian protection. Achieving this objective does not seem realistic, according to him. "Currently, the Ukrainian offensive is apparently targeting the southern city of Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhya region. But the Russian units have entered very deep there, and it will be difficult to break them. But there are also special successes. The Ukrainians have recently started to withdraw the tired troops from the front and replace them with young ones, who have more power and are more lively in the attack."

Weary troops are found on both sides of the battle

But according to Gressel, the tired troops at the front are a symptomatic sign for both the Ukrainian and Russian armies. "The consumption in this war has been very large and on the Russian side even a little higher than on the Ukrainian side. Both sides are withdrawing their reserves. The personnel being mobilized is getting older. The military training was carried out long before the mobilization , and this leads to a lot of forgetfulness and loss of professionalism, This is a problem for the commanders of both sides. On the Russian side, this is compounded by the fact that there is no rotation and the morale is partly weaker. Older soldiers arrive faster from overexertion to their limits. The question is, how much is this worth to the Ukrainians."

Military expert, Gustav Gressel

Deklaratat për gjoja negociata të mundshme paqeje të Sekretarit të Përgjithshëm të NATO-s, Jens Stoltenberg u hodhën poshtë, por ato shkaktuan mjaft reagime duke ngritur pyetjen, nëse po përgatiten skenarët për të filluar negociatat mes Rusisë dhe Ukrainës. Sipas ekspertit Gressel, NATO nuk merret me këtë, por do të ketë qeveri dhe aleatë që mendojnë për këtë. "Shtëpia e Bardhë dhe zyra kancelarore në Berlin janë qartësisht të orientuara, që dikur në një moment të caktuar, Ukraina do të negociojë me Rusinë dhe se furnizimet me armë kanë qëllimin, të sjellin në një pozicion më të mirë Ukrainën kundrejt Rusisë."

Problemi është sipas Gresselit që si Ukraina edhe Rusia duan një vendim nga kjo luftë. Rusia edhe më tej synon të eliminojë Ukrainën si shtet të pavarur, dhe nuk do të negociojë asgjë më poshtë, se ky qëllim ushtarak. Ukraina nga ana e saj e përcakton këtë luftë gjithnjë e më shumë si luftë për pavarësi dhe do që Rusia në fund të detyrohet të njohë Ukrainën si shtet të pavarur. "Dëshira për negociata nuk reflekton realitetin politik të palëve në luftime."

Eksperti Gustav Gressel pret vazhdimin e luftës edhe vitin e ardhshëm. "Duhet të llogarisim me atë që lufta me siguri do të zgjasë deri në vitin 2025. Nëse Donald Trump do të fitonte zgjedhjet presidenciale në vitin 2024, sipas pikëpamjes ruse ai mund të ofrojë një 'deal' në janar 2025, kështu pranvera 2025 do ishte koha më e hershme që për palën ruse mund të sillte fundin e luftës sipas kushteve të saj. Nëse Biden fiton zgjedhjet, gjë që për momentin duket më e mundshme, mund të pritet, që lufta të zgjasë përtej vitit 2025."

"The war will surely last until 2025"

Expert Gressel asks not to waste time on meaningless debates and to move forward with the production of armaments to help Ukraine. Tanks, tank defenses, fighter jets must be produced quickly to support Ukraine for several years of war, as the West's reserves are being depleted, Gressel says. And the discussion about what will be given to Ukraine from the reserves should not always start from the beginning./VOA