Germany, the Trump-Putin effect in the new foreign policy

2025-04-15 08:00:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The fact that the CDU/CSU and SPD agreed on a coalition so quickly is also linked to geopolitical developments and acute foreign policy challenges. Almost all of them have to do with Donald Trump.

The difficult international situation and the tariff policy of the US administration of President Donald Trump have recently put the negotiators of the German parties seeking to form a government under additional pressure to reach an agreement. It is a "situation of increasing global political tensions," said the CDU's prospective chancellor Friedrich Merz when he presented the coalition agreement. Merz counters the threats and uncertainties with the coalition partners' message: "We want and will help shape changes in the world for Germany." And SPD leader Lars Klingbeil confirmed: "It is a turning point. We are living in truly historic times." Here is an overview of the most important foreign policy challenges:

What does the next federal government plan to do in terms of trade policy?

US President Donald Trump's steep import tariffs and countermeasures from affected countries have caused turmoil in stock markets around the world and fears of a global trade war last week. As an exporting country, Germany is particularly hard hit by the tariffs, partly because the German economy has been in recession for more than two years.

The EU is responsible for transatlantic trade, Germany cannot act alone here. Aware of Germany's vulnerability, the next federal government is committed to preventing further escalation. The coalition agreement states: "In the medium term we aim for a free trade agreement with the US, in the short term we want to avoid a trade conflict and we are committed to reducing import tariffs on both sides of the Atlantic." Given Trump's recent actions, this can also be seen as a rather optimistic approach.

Germany and the transatlantic relationship

Friedrich Merz is actually a staunch transatlantic. For ten years he was chairman of the Atlantic Bridge, a non-partisan organization dedicated to strengthening US-German relations. Although he has never lived in the US, he says he knows the American way of thinking very well thanks to years of working for the American investment group BlackRock. But with the start of Donald Trump's second term in office, Merz's belief in a close German-American partnership has been severely shaken. "I am shocked by Donald Trump," he said after Trump blamed Ukraine for the war. Merz expressed shock when Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly humiliated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House.

Germany has had a bad reputation with Trump since the time of CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel, partly because of Merkel's open refugee policy, which the US President hated. Although Merz has consistently distanced himself politically from Merkel, a personal meeting between Merz and Trump would not be easy. So far, none have been planned.

Ukraine: Will Germany now offer Taurus missiles?

Donald Trump's efforts to bring peace to Ukraine have reduced Europeans to mere spectators. He is negotiating directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also has no direct influence on the talks. If a peace deal is reached that could result in a dictated peace for Ukraine, the Germans and other EU Europeans would probably be left with only the role of ensuring peace. The future coalition will continue to support Ukraine. "We stand by the brave Ukrainians. They can count on us," said SPD's Lars Klingbeil. The coalition partners have not yet decided on this. However, it remains unclear exactly what will happen with the military aid. As opposition leader, Merz had advocated sending German long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. The current SPD chancellor, Olaf Scholz, always rejected this because he feared that Germany would be drawn into a war with Russia.

Defense: Merz wants independence from the US

Because Merz doubts whether the US will honor the mutual defense clause, he said on election night that Europeans should "realize independence from the US" as soon as possible. In the meantime, Merz has not only received the OK from the Bundestag for "whatever it takes" to improve the Bundeswehr. In the meantime, he aims for closer cooperation between Europeans on defense policy. He wants to talk to the European nuclear powers, France and Great Britain, about whether and how Germany and Europe can benefit from their nuclear defense. This will not be easy. The two countries are unlikely to be willing to share their nuclear arsenals so simply.

Even within the EU, there are reservations about more military cooperation. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban maintains good contacts with Vladimir Putin and refuses support for Ukraine.

German EU policy: success is not always certain

Merz had accused the current government under SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz of allowing European cooperation to weaken. Relations with closest partners France and Poland have suffered most, he said, and Merz wants to change the situation. But it won't be that easy. French President Emmanuel Macron is under pressure at home. After years under the right-wing nationalist PiS government, Poland once again has a pro-European leadership under former EU Council President Donald Tusk, but it currently has no close relationship with either Paris or Warsaw. The previous enthusiastic moment within the EU has passed. Right-wing populists are on the rise almost everywhere and European integration is no longer so easy.

Reducing risks with China

As a way out of the trade conflict with Trump, some politicians in Berlin and Brussels want to focus more on trade with China. But things are no longer the way they used to be, when German exporters did great business there. German cars, long the export hit in China, are now sitting in parking lots. The EU, for its part, is closing its market to Chinese electric cars. Here too, Germany, as an export-oriented country, must try to ensure that market restrictions on trade with China do not go too far.

On the other hand, the future coalition wants to reduce security risks when dealing with China's economic power. The sentence in the coalition agreement "We want to effectively prevent foreign investments that conflict with our national interests, in critical infrastructure and in strategically important areas" probably refers primarily to China.

Middle East conflict: Netanyahu welcomed in Germany?

The German government is in a particularly difficult position here: As a consequence of the Nazi history of the murder of millions of Jews, Israel's security is of particular importance to any German government. On the other hand, German politicians have repeatedly criticized Israel's harsh crackdown on the Gaza Strip as disproportionate. Hamas, a militant, Palestinian Islamist group, is classified by the US, the EU, Germany and other countries as a terrorist organization.

The German government is also in a quandary over an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is suspected of war crimes in the Gaza Strip. Germany supports the criminal court and would in fact be required to arrest Netanyahu if he were to visit Germany. However, Friedrich Merz has promised that this will not happen under his leadership as chancellor.

Is Germany saying goodbye to climate protection?

The Greens have ensured that climate protection in Germany receives significantly more funding and that climate neutrality is included in the constitution by 2045 - but globally the situation is different: Donald Trump not only pulled the US out of all international climate protection agreements immediately after taking office, but also large American companies have followed suit: investment giants such as BlackRock and JP Morgan have abandoned climate-friendly projects. This will make it much more difficult for Germany to move forward with climate protection at the international level. Environmental organizations, meanwhile, believe that the incoming government itself is no longer taking this seriously. They see the passage in the coalition agreement, which states that climate neutrality must be achieved "with an approach that combines climate protection, economic competitiveness and social balance" as a weakening of climate goals./ DW