Analysis - What does Khamenei's death mean for Russia and China?

2026-03-02 15:45:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

It took just one minute to change the world. Within the first 60 seconds of Operation Epic Fury, Israeli officials claimed, Iran's Supreme Leader and his top aides were dead.

But the precision-guided missiles that struck the center of Tehran in the first salvo of the war didn't just kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and upend half a century of Iranian history. They also underscored a more fundamental reality, where real power still lies in the world.

Much has been written in recent years about “multipolarity” – the idea that emerging powers have regained some of the dominance that the United States unilaterally exercised after the Cold War.

Such arguments are not without basis. China's manufacturing clout and its dominance over critical resource supply lines challenge Washington's economic supremacy. Rising middle powers have ensured that the US no longer enjoys unchallenged influence in every region.

But when it comes to military power, the US still reigns supreme, a point that Donald Trump has tried to emphasize repeatedly since returning to office.

Whether or not he is America's greatest president, as he sometimes suggests, Mr. Trump is certainly among its most important.

Few of his predecessors have wielded brutal power so openly. In two months, he has removed two leaders on two continents: Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and Khamenei in Iran. Unlike Theodore Roosevelt, Trump speaks loudly and wields a big stick without remorse.

For nearly two decades, China and Russia have tried to build a global coalition to counter American hegemony. With Mr. Trump scuttling those ambitions, Moscow and Beijing have been reduced to helpless blighters on the sidelines, while their regional clients are sidelined.

Following Khamenei's death, Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, expressed his "deep condolences," condemned a "cynical murder that violated all norms of human morality and international law," and mourned the passing of "an outstanding statesman."

The subtext will not escape the group of strongmen who depend on Moscow's patronage – when the missiles fall, Russia can offer little more than sympathy.

For now, Trump can savor his triumph, having mishandled his critics and confounded the received wisdom.

While Khamenei's assassination is hardly the end of the matter – the Middle East has a track record of turning Western triumphs to ashes – the early stages of this war have already achieved what many thought impossible.

Experts said Iran's leaders would have surely learned the dangers of gathering in one place after Israel killed at least 20 senior officials and nuclear scientists in last year's 12-day war, or after eliminating Hezbollah's leader and inner circle in Lebanon a year ago.

Regime insiders had said that security around Khamenei and his inner circle was “layered and deep.” They circulated through a network of safe houses, abandoned all traceable communications technology, and oversaw purges and executions aimed at shutting down the information leaks through which American and Israeli intelligence had once infiltrated the regime.

Any attempt to find and kill him was assumed to require a prolonged and dangerous campaign, as in Libya in 2011, when it took seven months of NATO bombing to find and kill Muammar Gaddafi.

However, two factors explain why Washington has been much more successful 15 years later.

In Libya, the US chose to “lead from behind.” Barack Obama, eager to avoid the optics of another American war in the Middle East, allowed Britain and France to lead the airstrikes – only to discover that they lacked the firepower to force a quick surrender.

Trump, by contrast, does not build coalitions, except with Israel. As has become standard, he neither consulted nor informed his European allies before attacking Iran. For him, the mantle of international legitimacy and risk-sharing with partners barely exists.

The second factor is intelligence. US capabilities are far more sophisticated than they were in 2011. In addition to human intelligence, Washington now uses cyber-penetration, artificial intelligence and high-altitude, long-endurance drones capable of identifying a single individual by gait, voice or electronic signature – before deploying so-called Ninja missiles, whose extendable steel blades “disintegrate” their target.

Unlike the Gaddafi era, concealment has become much more difficult.

However, history – especially in the Middle East – warns against triumphalism.

After American troops captured Baghdad in just 21 days in 2003, George W. Bush infamously addressed the nation from an aircraft carrier under a banner that read “Mission Accomplished.” Hundreds of thousands of civilians died in the years that followed as Iraq descended into anarchy.

Trump cannot claim justification until it is clear that Iran is not following the same path.

Despite all the success of the opening attacks, it is far from clear whether Iran's theocracy has suffered a fatal blow.

Although shaken by the loss of its Supreme Leader and the beheading of its top echelon, the revolutionary system was designed to withstand such shocks. It may take weeks to see how much it has truly weakened.

Even if it collapses, Iran – a nation of 90 million people – is extremely vulnerable to civil war. Kurds, Arabs, Azeris and Baluchis all harbor ambitions for autonomy.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is unlikely to hand over power willingly. A peaceful transition seems less likely than a violent one. Mr. Trump’s declaration that his goal is “peace throughout the Middle East” could come back to haunt him.

China and Russia will be eagerly waiting for Mr. Trump to stumble.

Khamenei’s death – like Mr. Maduro’s fall before it – has exposed the limits of their global reach.

Both refrained from supplying Iran with systems that could have provided a real strategic deterrent. Russia, despite benefiting from Iran’s drone technology, offered only training aircraft and vague promises of shoulder-fired missiles, consistently omitting the S-400 air defense system and Su-35 fighter jets that could have made a significant difference.

China, while reportedly helping with ballistic missile fuel, did little to help Iran reach parity.

Both powers offered economic partnerships, but not the security guarantees necessary to ensure the survival of their leadership.

The rupture carries risks for them too. Iran supplies China with roughly 1.4 million barrels of oil per day, about 9 percent of its total consumption.

If Mr. Trump scores a clinical victory, Beijing and Moscow will find it harder to convince potential partners that American power is in permanent decline. The informal anti-Western bloc known as the CRINKs (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) will look much less credible if the “I” has been removed.

However, no capital will assume that history is over.

Higher oil prices would benefit Putin’s war machine. Any trouble in Iran would quickly destroy Mr. Trump’s newfound credibility. If the restive Gulf states succumb to continued Iranian attacks and pressure Washington for restraint, US dominance in the Middle East could unravel, creating opportunities for Moscow and Beijing to exploit.

And whatever happens in Iran, Putin believes that where it matters most, he is safe. Trump may seek regime change elsewhere, but Russia is not on that list. Its leader is, after all, the kind of dictator the US president likes./The Telegraph