Analysis/ Putin's circle of friends is narrowing, but Russia will not help Iran

2026-03-02 14:21:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Analysis/ Putin's circle of friends is narrowing, but Russia will not help

First Bashar al-Assad, then Nicolas Maduro, now Ayatollah Khamenei. Russian President Vladimir Putin's circle of friends continues to narrow.

These are three close Kremlin allies who have been ousted from power in just over a year. And the fall of the last two was due to US President Donald Trump.

Having Moscow as a partner clearly does not guarantee protection.

Yesterday, the Russian president condemned the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, calling it a "cynical" murder that violated "all norms of human morality and international law."

It may be a bit of an exaggeration from the man who invaded his neighbor, but there was no hint of irony in his statement. Russia’s Foreign Ministry warned of “grave consequences,” saying the US and Israeli attacks would plunge the region into “an abyss of uncontrolled escalation.”

So far, that's been Moscow's response and reaction. Condemnation and condolences (to Khamenei's family), but no action.

Will Russia help Tehran?

This is highly unlikely, and there are several reasons why.

First, it is not required to do so. Although Russia and Iran are close allies, their Strategic Partnership Agreement (signed in 2025) does not contain a mutual defense clause, so there is no obligation to come to their aid.

Second, even if it wanted to get involved, it might have difficulty finding resources, given its full focus on Ukraine.

Third, the loss of a leader does not necessarily mean regime change. And even if it does, a "new" Iran will not necessarily burn its bridges with Moscow.

Proof of this is Syria, seeing how successful the Kremlin has been in building relations there since Assad was ousted from power.

Finally, the Trump factor.

His relationship with the American president appears to be what Putin values ??most now, due to its impact on the war in Ukraine and the resulting rifts in transatlantic unity.

Ukraine remains Putin's top priority. Any aid to Iran could have a negative impact on it. And the situation is not that bad for the Kremlin.

Rising oil prices and any continued supply disruptions will provide a much-needed boost to the Russian economy.

And Moscow will undoubtedly cite these events in defense of its military actions: if the US and Israel won't follow international law, then why should we? /Taken from SkyNews