Germany, who will govern the land of Mercedes?

2026-03-07 15:22:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The Christian Democrats and the Greens are almost evenly matched ahead of the election in the wealthy state of Baden-Württemberg. Who could win and what are the differences?

The state of Baden-Württemberg has been jointly governed by the Greens and the CDU since 2016. It is highly likely that the coalition will continue after this week's elections (March 8).

But who will be the biggest partner? The last two polls give the CDU a slight advantage (27-28 percent) over the Greens (25-27). The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) can count on almost twenty percent, while the other parties are in the single digits.

The Greens have made a big change: Their alpha and omega in this state, Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann, turns 78 in May and has decided not to run again. Kretschmann has been Prime Minister since 2011, when the Greens were founded and because, just a few days before the vote, the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, left a big impression. The Greens have always been against nuclear energy.

Since then, Kretschmann has governed with the support of the Social Democrats and then the CDU. He is well-received by all. Kretschmann belongs to the so-called "realist" wing of the Greens, closer to industry, as opposed to the "fundamentalists" who are more to the left.

Competition between young and old

Now he could be succeeded by the young Manuel Hagel (CDU), and it is very likely that he will first turn to the Greens for a coalition.

Hagel (37) presents himself as a man who understands economics, and this is very important in the land of car companies Mercedes, Porsche and other large companies. Speaking to DW, Hagel mentions two inventors:

"If we think about Karl Benz, he didn't invent the car because someone banned carriages for the first time. Baron von Drais didn't invent the bicycle because someone banned him from walking. They invented these things because they were hungry for something new," says the CDU candidate.

His main opponent is the experienced Green politician Cem Özdemir (60). Unlike Hagel, he is known throughout the state because he was party chairman and federal minister of agriculture. In the final stages of the campaign, Özdemir narrowed the gap. As an individual, he is more popular than Hagel.

"This is a land where the Greens are deeply rooted in society," Özdemir tells DW. "From business associations to NGOs, from environmental movements to the more conservative people who celebrate Carnival. Everyone is united in our party."

Roberto Heinrich, a pollster whose infratest-dimap conducted one of the recent polls, says Özdemir's personal support extends beyond his party. "As a personality, he is very popular with both the older generation and Christian Democratic voters."

AfD candidate prefers Berlin

The AfD, some of whose committees are considered extremist, has fielded a familiar face from the state, Markus Frohnmeier, as its candidate. He is currently the deputy chairman of the parliamentary group in the Bundestag. He has already said that if he does not become state premier, he will not come from Berlin to represent the state at all.

His chances of becoming Prime Minister are zero. Because conservative candidate Hagel has already ruled out the possibility of cooperation with right-wing populists. Ozdemir says the same.

As researcher Heinrich says, the AfD is gaining strength and gaining support from different sections of society. "But support is strongest among middle-aged men, workers and people dissatisfied with their personal economic situation."

In general, this is not enough to think about the government in the western states. It is different in the east, for example in Mecklenburg or Saxony-Anhalt, where the vote will be held in September. There, the AfD is very close to 40 percent support.

In September, Berlin will also vote. And on March 22, in Rhineland-Palatinate. So, this year is full of elections in Germany.

The Social Democrats' Abyss

If the CDU wins, it would be a return to factory conditions for Baden-Württemberg, a state of around eleven million people. From the 1950s until Kretschmann's arrival, there had always been a Christian Democrat as Prime Minister.

The population is considered conservative, but it also supports the Greens, and not only in the large university centers of Stuttgart and Tübingen. The overall decline of the Social Democrats, who are facing their worst result in history, is likely to continue. If they remain in single digits, this could be a shock to the party headquarters in Berlin, where the Social Democrats are weakened in coalition with Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU.

It's not just the CDU and the Greens that have pushed the Social Democrats out of the race in southwest Germany, says Roberto Heinrich, but the AfD is also having an impact. "A competitor from the right that is dealing with economic issues and other social democratic topics."

New electoral system

Baden-Württemberg is one of the strongest economic regions in Europe, with low unemployment and strong companies, especially family-owned ones. Of the 1,000 largest family-owned companies in Germany, almost a fifth are from this state.

On Sunday, voting will take place for the first time under the new electoral system. As in federal elections, each citizen will have two votes - one vote for the candidate in their electoral district by first and last name, the second for the party list.

The first vote decides on personnel, but the second is more important, because the total number of seats is distributed to this or that party based on percentages.

Also, for the first time in this state, young people from the age of 16 will be able to vote./ DW