Fukuyama: Weakening Russia can strengthen Central Asia

2023-09-08 08:36:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Fukuyama: Weakening Russia can strengthen Central Asia

American political expert and philosopher, Francis Fukuyama

American political affairs expert and philosopher Francis Fukuyama has said that a weakened Russia, due to losses in the war in Ukraine, can avoid territorial threats to Kazakhstan and offer more opportunities to the countries of Central Asia so that they can set their own policies.

Fukuyama, director of the Center for the Advancement of Democracy and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, spoke to Radio Free Europe's Kazakh Service about the situation in Ukraine, and how Russia's losses are affecting Moscow's governance, but also about the scenarios that could end the war in Ukraine.

He was in Allmati for the release of his newest book, "Liberalism and its Discontents".

According to him, Russia's war in Ukraine constitutes a strategic mistake, but it may have other effects on the Central Asian states.

"I think [Russian President Vladimir] Putin thought he could launch the so-called special military operation and that the regime in Kiev could be overthrown within two or three days, and that he could install someone that Moscow likes. However, after more than a year and a half, the Russian army has faced very large losses. This decision was much bigger than what Putin thought at the beginning".

According to him, the essential task of the Ukrainian army is to destroy the land corridor that Moscow has created between the Russian city of Rostov and the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014.

He said that it is important that the Ukrainian forces break the railway line and be able to bombard the bridge around the Kerch Strait, through which the supplies of the Russian army are delivered.

According to Fukuyama, if Ukrainian forces manage to carry out these actions, "Russia's position will become much more difficult. Maybe then the negotiations for a ceasefire or to ease the conflict will make sense. But it is too early to say that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed and that there is still a blockade". In a post on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, Fukuyama predicted that the end of the war would lead to the fall of the Putin regime.

Citing the grievances that fueled a brief rebellion by former Russian Wagner Group mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his subsequent death, Fukuyama told Radio Free Europe that the real threat to the Putin regime it does not come from the streets, but from "someone within the leadership in the field of security". "Many authoritarian regimes seem very powerful until the moment they are overthrown," he said.

"It's very likely that [Putin] can survive because Russia has a lot of resources and he's a pretty smart politician."

A weakened Russia could result in a strengthened Central Asia

Among Fukuyama's best-known works as a political pundit are the article and book of the same name, The End of History and the Last Man, published in 1992, in which he claims that with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Western liberal democracy has triumphed. as a "final" political system and has ended "history" in that respect.

As for the current situation in Eurasia, the 70-year-old has said that any weakening of the Russian regime, as a result of losses in Ukraine, could allow Central Asian states to be more independent in what matters most for them.

According to Fukuyama, the fall of Ukraine into the hands of the Russian army poses a great threat to Kazakhstan, as some ultra-nationalist politicians in Moscow claim that some parts of northern Kazakhstan should be given to Russia.

"Any weakening of Russia could give Central Asian states and [especially] Kazakhstan - a greater opportunity to set their own policies [without Russian interference]," he said.

"You can imagine the opposite, if the Russians invade Ukraine, or take a part of Kazakhstan, as if they took it in Ukraine. But a weakened Russia would enable the countries of Central Asia to make decisions without worrying about what the Russians will say and how they will react."

Fukuyama also mentioned the importance of the liberal development of society in that region.

"It is important to form a national identity that includes all those living in Kazakhstan, rather than allowing one group to dominate. During the Soviet era there were attempts [by Moscow] to make everything Russian, to force everyone to speak Russian, to make Russian culture somehow dominant. This is wrong. People need freedom to live in a cultural environment without being blocked by others", he said.

Fukuyama is surprised by the strict rules that exist on the borders of Central Asia and has said that the implementation of a free market as much as possible and the opening of borders would lead to increased regional economic development.

"One of the things that impressed me during my visit to this region is how little commercial circulation there is between the states of Central Asia," he said.

"There could be bigger markets and more prosperity if the states of this region did not establish border controls and implement nationalistic policies. This is a project that the leaders of these countries will be able to carry forward in the future".

Independence is key

Fukuyama's doctrine of liberalism positions him to the position that people in an open society are treated equally, regardless of race, gender or any other categorization.

Asked about the president of Kazakhstan Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev, Fukuyama emphasized the importance of an individual's freedom.

"I think that Kazakhstan has a centralized authoritarian regime. However, I think Mr. Toqaev's transition has opened the door to opportunities that maybe didn't exist under the first president, just because [former Kazakh president Nursultan] Nazarbaev has been in power for a long time and has centralized power a lot… but even if there is no full democracy, I think there can still be an authoritarian regime that allows a greater degree of individual freedom", said Fukuyama, citing China as an example of such a reality.

"If you analyze China, there is a big difference between the China of 2010 and the China of 2023, because Chinese individuals in 2010 have had more freedom to travel, to think more for themselves. Under Chinese leader Xi Jinping, these freedoms have disappeared. It is still the authoritarian regime it was then, but the degree of individual freedom has been limited. These are the kinds of elections that exist in Kazakhstan, even if the regime continues to be highly centralized."

Low level of education easily leads to dictatorship

Fukuyama has said that opportunities for greater democracy in Central Asia are limited because of two authoritarian neighbors: China and Russia.

However, he spoke with doses of hope, taking Mongolia as an example.

"Mongolia is also between Russia and China, and since 1991 it has been organizing democratic elections", he said.

"Citizens there enjoy great freedom. Therefore, I do not think that the geographical location necessarily dictates the internal formation of the Government. But if the power of Russia and China weakens, something like this allows more space for freedom in the states of Central Asia".

Fukuyama has also spoken about the low level of education as an accelerating factor for dictatorship in the region, emphasizing the importance of educating the new generations.

"If you have a population that is not well educated, the slide into dictatorship is easier. But if you are a country that has a large percentage of middle class, that is, people who travel abroad, have different ideas, then the demand for an open society increases and this is happening in Kazakhstan. The number of young people studying abroad in Central Asia is quite impressive, and they will make a difference. So there was a big social change of the generation"./ Rel