Analysts: President Xi's absence from the G20 meeting, a missed opportunity

2023-09-07 22:55:50, Kosova & Bota CNA

Analysts say Chinese President Xi Jingping's absence from the G20 meeting in New Delhi, which starts on Saturday, is likely to overshadow efforts to tackle pressing global issues such as climate change and Russia's war in Ukraine.

Beijing has not given much detail on the reasons for Mr. Xi's absence from the meeting of the world's 20 largest economies. In a one-sentence announcement on its website on Monday, China's Foreign Ministry announced that instead of Mr Xi, Premier Li Qiang would attend the meeting. At a press conference later that day, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning gave no further details, saying simply that "China has always attached great importance to and actively participated in the events of of the G20".

Analysts say Mr. Xi's decision to skip the meeting raises questions and highlights a shift in priorities on Beijing's foreign policy agenda. They say not attending the meeting is a missed opportunity to engage with other world leaders at the highest level and improve relations with other countries.

"China wants to be a leader in global diplomacy, but Mr. Xi's absence from the meeting contradicts that goal," Moritz Rudolf, a scholar at the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale University Law School, told VOA in a phone interview.

Mr. Rudolf said the decision also reflects a shift in priorities in China's foreign policy agenda, which prioritizes engagement with developing countries.

"From the meeting of the BRICS group (composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and other diplomatic events, including the China-Central Asia meeting in May and President Xi's trip to the Middle East, we can draw a conclusion on China's foreign policy priorities," said scholar Rudolf, adding that Beijing is focused on the Global South.

"The priority of China's foreign policy is not the G20 meeting as it is not a forum where China can benefit so much. It is easier for Beijing officials to prioritize the upcoming One Generation One Road Forum, which will mark its 10th anniversary," he added.

China will host a meeting in honor of the 10th anniversary of their initiative in Beijing next month.

Advantage over closest allies

Since coming to power more than a decade ago, President Xi has not missed a single G20 meeting. This year, despite China's lifting of tough COVID-19 restrictions and the start of his norm-breaking third term in office, his trips abroad have been significantly reduced.

Since the coronavirus pandemic, he has traveled outside of China only twice, a visit to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in March and more recently another visit to South Africa to attend the BRICS group meeting . Both are seen as China-friendly countries.

"President Xi visits a country, even just to attend a multilateral forum, if China has a relatively positive bilateral relationship with that country," said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center. , for VOA in a telephone interview.

Some examples that reflect this tradition include President Xi's participation in the G20 high-level meeting in Indonesia and his participation in the APEC meeting in Thailand in 2022.

"These are countries with which China has relatively good relations, so I am not surprised that President Xi is avoiding the G20 meeting in India," she added.

Ms Sun and other analysts say they think unresolved tensions between China and India contributed to President Xi's decision not to attend this year's G20 meeting.

"From the Chinese point of view, India is not working with China," says analyst Sun. "China has complained that India is using the G20 and related meetings to reaffirm its claims over disputed territory (on the border between the two countries)."

As China and India have held a series of meetings aimed at resolving long-standing border disputes, a new map released by Beijing last week showing China's claims to disputed territories prompted New Delhi to mount a diplomatic protest.

In addition to ongoing tensions with India, other analysts believe that US-led efforts against China's recent military actions around the island of Taiwan may have also contributed to President Xi's decision not to attend the G20 meeting. is.

"President Biden's visit to India and Vietnam is seen in Beijing as an attempt to encircle China, and Beijing is alarmed by Washington's increasing military aid to Taiwan," Zhiqun Zhu, a Chinese foreign policy expert, told VOA. at Bucknell University.

Will the same thing happen with the APEC meeting?

Reactions to President Xi's decision not to attend the G20 meeting by world leaders have been mixed. American President Joe Biden expressed his disappointment at this action by the Chinese leader, while Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar emphasized that the absence of President Xi would not affect the efforts of the leaders of the G20 countries to issue a joint communiqué.

While some analysts say the absence from the meeting will be a missed opportunity, others think China's decision not to engage with some countries is part of an effort to get them to change their ways.

"For example, if the goal is to change the behavior of the United States, some would say that the fact that Washington has sent four cabinet members to Beijing since June is a good sign that the Chinese strategy is working," says expert Sun from Stimson Center.

It remains to be seen whether this approach will also be applied to the meeting of APEC leaders in San Francisco.

Discussions about a possible meeting in the framework of the meeting in November are still ongoing. Analyst Sun says President Xi's attendance may be affected by the decision Washington may make on whether or not to attend the APEC meeting in San Francisco of Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee.

The Washington Post reported in July that the White House had decided not to allow Mr Lee to attend the meeting. "If Mr. Lee is denied a visa, the Chinese will see it as a huge loss to their image," says Ms. Sun.

Considering that there are about two months left until the start of the APEC meeting, analyst Sun says that an important indicator of whether or not President Xi will attend the meeting would be a visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Washington for pave the way for this opportunity.