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Expert analysis: Russia could continue fighting in Ukraine throughout 2026

2026-02-25 08:38:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Expert analysis: Russia could continue fighting in Ukraine throughout 2026

Russia will be able to withstand an invasion of Ukraine throughout 2026, even taking into account new economic and manpower pressures, while its missile and drone threat to Europe is growing, according to a leading group of military experts.

Bastian Giegerich, director general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said there was little indication that Russia's ability to continue its war against Ukraine for a fifth year has diminished.

This group of experts reported that the Kremlin spent at least $186 billion (£138 billion) on defense in 2025, a 3% increase in real terms, amounting to 7.3% of the country's GDP - more than double the percentage spent by the US and around three times the level of the UK.

Fenella McGerty, a defense finance expert at the organization, said that while Russia's economy was slowing, which could lead to "a possible decline" in military spending in real terms in 2026, it had to be offset by several years of significant growth.

Military spending had doubled in real terms since 2021, she pointed out, allowing Russia to spend more on military equipment and recruitment to support relentless ground and air attacks against Ukraine in the near future.

Four years ago, Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Although Russia's smaller neighbor did not collapse, the Kremlin reoriented itself to a war economy and continued to fight at high intensity despite suffering more than 1.2 million casualties in killed and wounded.

“ Despite Western talks about a lasting ceasefire agreement, Russia intensifies its attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and population centers with a mix of cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as single-target attack drones ,” Giegerich added./ CNA, translated by The Guardian





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