Should NATO shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine?

2024-09-15 18:15:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Should NATO shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine?

Drones and missile defense in Ukraine. Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP/picture alliance

In the early hours of Sunday morning, September 8, two Romanian F-16 fighter jets took off from the air base in Borca, a town near the border with Ukraine. Residents of the region were warned by text messages on mobile phones about the possibility of danger. The warning was issued after Romania's radar surveillance system detected a Russian drone that had entered Romanian airspace. The drone reportedly stayed there for more than 30 minutes and eventually turned back in the direction of Ukraine.

This was not the first incident of this kind in Romania on NATO territory. Just the other day, a Russian drone was shot down in Latvia. The number of such incidents has increased in the past four weeks, and Russia appears ready to risk even more. "The situation is getting worse and NATO needs to find a response now," Jamie Shea, NATO's former deputy assistant secretary general for emerging security challenges, told Deutsche Wellen.

Shea, now a senior fellow at Friends of Europe, a think tank in Brussels, argues that the alliance should "give its members greater protection". The alliance has promised to defend every inch of NATO territory.

Is Russia testing NATO?

NATO has condemned recent airspace violations by Russia, calling them "irresponsible and potentially dangerous". However, in a post on the X social network, the outgoing deputy secretary general of NATO, Mirce Joana, emphasized that the alliance has no information that "indicates a deliberate attack by Russia against allies".

Video drones for protection. Photo: DW

Experts such as Jan Kalberg, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, suspect Russia may scrutinize NATO's response and try to find inconsistencies "between what we say and what we do." . They may also try to test the allies' ability to communicate, he told DW.

The issue was among the topics discussed during a closed-door meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Brussels this week. Pressure on NATO to go beyond measures already in place, including increased surveillance, air patrols and the deployment of more air defense systems in the alliance's eastern regions, appears to be mounting.

Should NATO shoot down Russian drones?

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski said that Poland, like other countries bordering Ukraine, have a "duty" to shoot down Russian missiles before they enter their airspace. . In November 2022, two farmers were killed when a missile - this time a Ukrainian air defense missile - exploded outside the village of Pshevodov, about five kilometers west of the Ukrainian border.

As a sovereign nation, Poland can certainly do whatever it deems necessary for its own defense, but the Polish government is unlikely to move in this direction without a collective decision of the Alliance. NATO has so far opposed the proposal, citing the risk of the alliance becoming part of the conflict.

Could a buffer zone on the border with Ukraine help?

Expanding Polish or Romanian air defenses over western Ukraine would help Poland not only protect its own citizens, but also Ukrainian cities like Lviv, Berzina says. This would be an important and welcome side effect for Ukraine as winter approaches, when Russia may attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure even more.

Russian attacks in Lviv. Photo: Roman Baluk/REUTERS

Shea also expects an increase in incidents in NATO airspace given the increasing number of Russian attacks in western Ukraine. "The real question is: does anyone other than the two Poles have to die, and how much worse does the situation have to get before such a case is resolved?

But Shea emphasized that if NATO decides to use its anti-aircraft systems across the border with Ukraine, "the use should be limited enough" to avoid the impression that "the West is going to war." However, the shield "must be operationally effective" not only to intercept drones but also ballistic missiles before they can cross into NATO territory. According to him, an area of ??100 kilometers inside Ukrainian territory is probably "the minimum that provides enough time for detection, observation and interception".

Political obstacles for NATO allies

Ultimately, this is a political decision. Experts agree that NATO has the resources to create a security zone on the border with Ukraine, if it decides to do so. But with the upcoming presidential elections in the US and complex domestic politics in France and Germany, the governments of these countries seem to have little desire to make decisions that could be criticized as bringing their countries to the brink of war with Russia. "Until the Russians deliberately attack us, we will turn a blind eye," said former NATO official Jamie Shea. But if a Russian drone seriously threatens a civilian area on NATO territory, that could change the whole situation./ DW