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Will the United States abandon NATO?

2025-03-03 19:36:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

It is not the first time that we have considered the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) either dead or on the verge of death.

Recently, Republican Senator Mike Lee said in a post on X – formerly Twitter – that "it's time to leave NATO and the European Union."

Elon Musk, the richest man in the world and a close ally of US President Donald Trump, liked the idea. He said, "I agree."

Although officials in Brussels and elsewhere believe that Musk's reaction is not unusual, as he often shares his political views on the X platform, some observers acknowledge that he has access to Trump and some conservative circles in Washington.

Still, NATO officials, at their headquarters in Brussels, are remarkably calm.

Their answer to the question of whether the dissolution of the alliance is inevitable is "no", and for two reasons: because of the large gap between rhetoric and action, and because of the differences between NATO allies and NATO aspiring countries, especially when it comes to Ukraine.

'Ignore the noise'

Let's focus on the first reason. Just last week, Trump declared his commitment to implementing NATO's Article 5, in a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

This position was reiterated several times – both publicly and privately – by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth during a meeting of NATO defense ministers held in Brussels in February.

Although he has insisted that European allies increase defense spending, all of Radio Free Europe's sources within NATO have described the discussions as constructive.

"He never left the discussion, he listened, he asked questions, he took notes - he did not have the behavior of an ally who has abandonment in mind," a NATO ambassador said, in several responses to Radio Free Europe.

Along the same lines, NATO diplomats are dealing with the constant speculation.

"We need to decipher what all this means," a senior official said.

"But we have also learned that we need to ignore the noise and focus on the action. We need to practice a kind of 'strategic patience.'"

Ukraine's unclear path

But, the situation is different when it comes to Ukraine.

"Ukraine's path has changed, but NATO's has not. They have been tough on Ukraine, but they remain committed to NATO," an ambassador to the alliance said in several responses to Radio Free Europe.

The change in rhetoric towards Volodymyr Zelensky is another clear example, but so is Britain's new role in coordinating the delivery of weapons to Ukraine.

It is clear that Ukraine will not join NATO anytime soon – and to be realistic, it was the administration of former President Joe Biden that blocked Kiev's membership at recent NATO summits, while Western European states have maintained their composure.

The new American administration is more direct in this regard.

The question on NATO's eastern flank is whether US troops will continue to be stationed there. For now, the answer is 'yes,' although there are concerns that the Trump administration may review the number of troops it has committed to Europe.

And if these countries are attacked by Russia, will American forces help them?

Everyone believes that this will be the case, that they would offer assistance, although for Article 5 it is not only the conviction of allies, but also of enemies - how much they believe that this point can be implemented - that is important.

An Eastern European official described this situation best.

He said the situation is like Schroedinger's cat - it exists in both states, alive and dead, until the box is opened.

"In the case of NATO, no one can speak with conviction about Article 5 until the day it is tested." /REL