
According to the organizers, the goal of the upcoming BRICS summit, which will be held in South Africa from August 22 to 24, is a fairer system of global governance and opposition to the economic dominance of Western countries. But some observers say the absence of Russian leader Vladimir Putin could threaten his growing influence in Africa.
Russia is one of the five member countries of BRICS. In addition to Russia, Brazil, India, China and South Africa are also members of this organization. These countries consider themselves as fast growing economies.
An arrest warrant has been issued against Russian President Putin by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. His possible participation in the summit posed a diplomatic and legal dilemma for South Africa, until it was later confirmed that the Russian delegation will be led by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
"Putin's presence would be a big distraction, given all the controversy that has arisen from the ICC indictment," Gideon Chitanga, a researcher at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, told DW.
"So his absence at least helps keep the focus on the main issues at the moment." In other words, there will be less noise about President Putin, about his possible arrest, and the issue will focus more on relations between Russia and African countries," added Chitanga.
Does Putin's absence matter?
In July, Putin downplayed his absence from South Africa. "I think my presence at the BRICS summit is no more important than being here in Russia," Putin said. But Gustavo de Carvalho, a senior fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs, said that right now Russia is economically weak, potentially leaving the door open for more serious negotiations if Putin were to make the trip.
"Putin is paying the price of the war. And so maybe some high-level agreements could have been concluded if Putin came too," he told DW. "But I don't think his absence will have much effect on no way".
Not everyone agrees with this. Ahead of the BRICS summit, South Africa's radical left-wing opposition party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), called on the leaders of China, India and Brazil to boycott the event in solidarity with Putin. Party leader Julius Malema rallied his supporters to hold protests in support of the Russian leader.
"We call on the President of the People's Republic of China, India and Brazil not to come to the BRICS summit as a sign of solidarity with President Putin ," said Malema.

"Ishte [Presidenti i Afrikës së Jugut] Ramaphosa - Ramaphosa frikacak - që nuk mund të garantonte se ne nuk do ta arrestonim Putinin... Ne kurrë nuk do ta mbështesim imperializmin kundër Presidentit Putin."
Kërkesat e Rusisë në qendër të vëmendjes
Ndikimi i Putinit është i madh edhe në vende të tjera. Grushti i shtetit në Niger dëshmoi edhe ndikimin në rritje të Rusisë në rajon. Edhe në Mali dhe Burkina Faso janë kryer grusht shtetesh në 2021 dhe 2022. Udhëheqësit ushtarakë dëbuan trupat e ish-fuqisë koloniale të Francës dhe forcuan marrëdhëniet diplomatike me Moskën.
Të dy vendet kanë paralajmëruar kundër çdo ndërhyrjeje ushtarake në Niger. Edhe Putini ka nënvizuar dëshirën e tij për një "zgjidhje paqësore". Nën presidentin e zgjedhur në mënyrë demokratike të Nigerit, Mohamed Bazuma, vendi është parë si një aleat perëndimor.

Frederik Goloba Mutebi thotë për DW se Rusia thjesht po ndjek interesat e veta në këtë rajon, ngjashëm sikur fuqitë perëndimore në të kaluarën. "Rusia, si të gjitha fuqitë e tjera perëndimore, do të mbështesë qeveritë në Afrikë që janë në përputhje me interesat e saj," tha Goloba. "Nëse Rusia po bën të njëjtën gjë sot, Perëndimi nuk duhet të shqetësohet për ndikimin në rritje të Rusisë në Afrikë."
Afrika ka interesat e veta
Sipas studiuesit Chitangi nga Universiteti i Witwatersrand, narrativa dominuese mbetet se Rusia kontribuon pak në ekonomitë afrikane në krahasim me prodhimin e saj ushtarak. "Por disa vende afrikanë e shohin Putinin si një aleat jetik," tha ai, duke shtuar se qytetarët afrikanë janë më të interesuar "në mënyrën se si vendet e tyre do të përfitojnë nga samiti i BRICS dhe marrëdhëniet e reja të BRICS".
Chitanga beson se vendet afrikane nuk do t'i nënshtrohen domosdoshmërisht presionit perëndimor "Ka shqetësim të madh midis politikëbërësve afrikanë, grupeve dhe akademikëve, të cilët janë shumë kritikë ndaj asaj që ata e shohin si hipokrizi të Perëndimit në përpjekjen për të ndikuar ose diktuar politikën në Afrikë.
Goloba says African leaders are still very aware of other nations' attitudes toward Russia, especially Western media writings. Only 17 African heads of state attended the 2023 Russia-Africa summit, compared to 43 at the first summit in 2019. "It cannot be said that African leaders traveled to Moscow or were represented there because they love Putin. They had their own interests in the relations with Russia that they had to maintain", explained Goloba./ DW
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