Russia and US fight for advantage in Ukraine war ahead of Trump's return

2024-11-21 07:42:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

In just a few days, the administration of US President Joe Biden and Russia have made swift moves aimed at influencing the outcome of the war in Ukraine, two months before Donald Trump's return to the White House.

Moscow claims it is maximizing its gains while Biden has abandoned long-held red lines before Trump seeks to make good on his claim to end the war in 24 hours.

Ukraine has already acted on Biden's decision to allow Kiev to launch the first long-range Atacms missiles deep into Russian territory. As Kiev tries to hold onto its territory in the east, Biden has also promised to send land mines as part of new military aid worth around $300m (£239m).

What prompted Biden's change of heart appears to have been the arrival of thousands of North Koreans stationed on the front lines, which the US sees as a "massive escalation".

But Russian President Vladimir Putin has further escalated tensions by loosening the terms of Russia's use of nuclear weapons. This "effectively eliminates" battlefield loss, Moscow claims.

One Russian commentator suggested that Putin may view the current situation as an "in-between" moment that gives him the sense that he has the upper hand in Ukraine.

Earlier this week, Russia launched its biggest airstrike in Ukraine in nearly three months. Amid fears of a strike on Wednesday, several Western embassies closed their doors.

It's all about preparing for a strong position for talks with Trump, to understand that Russia will not compromise, and it all depends on the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky.

"Clearly there is an effort ahead of Trump to maximize their position," agreed Jade McGlynn, from the war studies department at King's College London. She is highly skeptical that a deal with Putin is possible - and that his ultimate goal is to subdue Russia's southwestern neighbor. Ukraine marked 1,000 days since Russia's full invasion on Tuesday with Russian forces launching relentless attacks in a bid to capture key centers in eastern Ukraine.

From January, however, Putin will have to consider other factors, she says: "He will have to deal with the fact that Trump is now in charge of the situation. If Putin escalates, it could worsen the chances of a deal. He will have to be more flexible, more open to different options." The Biden administration announced new military aid to Ukraine, including munitions, missiles and drones, as well as land mines.

The US leader's decision to allow Kiev to begin firing Atacms into Russian territory was clearly aimed at helping Kiev, but it was also felt by Trump's entourage.

Although Trump has said nothing so far, his pick for National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz, spoke of "another step on the escalating ladder, and nobody knows where this is going."

Some Republicans have supported Biden's move, though Sen. Lindsay Graham said he should have done it "to help Ukraine and he's playing politics with it."/ CNA