A Peace Conference on Ukraine opens at the weekend in Switzerland, but without Russia

2024-06-14 14:24:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

A Peace Conference on Ukraine opens at the weekend in Switzerland, but without

Source, AP

Switzerland will host a number of world leaders this weekend in an effort to map out the first steps towards peace in Ukraine, although Russia, which started the ongoing war, will not attend.

The government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not want Russia involved, and the Swiss, aware of Moscow's reservations about the talks, did not invite Russia. The Swiss insist that Russia must be involved at some point and hope that it will join the process one day.

The conference, based on elements of a 10-point peace formula presented by President Zelensky in late 2022, is unlikely to produce major results and is seen as a largely symbolic effort by Kiev to rally the international community and to project force against his better armed and more numerous enemy.

But the question hanging over the meeting will be how both countries can pull back from the brink and finally lay down their weapons in a war that has cost hundreds of billions of dollars and caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries, without the participation of Moscow.

The conflict has also led to international sanctions against nuclear-armed Russia and heightened tensions between NATO and Moscow. The meeting comes at a time when Russian forces have made modest ground advances in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, expanding the control they already hold over about a quarter of the country.

Here's a look at what to expect at the weekend meeting in the tourist center of Burgenstock, overlooking Lake Lucerne.

Who will attend?

The first controversial issue is how many countries can the Swiss and Ukrainians attract? It is thought that the greater the participation, the greater will be the drive and pressure for peace.

Swiss officials sent out about 160 invitations and say about 90 delegations, including a handful of international organizations such as the United Nations, will attend. Approximately half will be from Europe. President Zelensky led a diplomatic effort in Asia and beyond to increase participation in the meeting.

Several dozen attendees will be heads of state or government, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish President Andrzej Duda, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

US Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with President Zelensky on Saturday, according to a senior Biden administration official. Ms Harris, who is making a quick trip to Lucerne to attend the opening day of the meeting, is also expected to give a speech.

The official, who spoke to a small group of reporters about the vice president's plans on condition of anonymity, said Ms. Harris intends to focus on "protecting and strengthening the rules-based international order."

Who will be the main absentees?

US President Joe Biden, who is wrapping up a visit to Italy where he stayed to attend a meeting of the Group of Seven of the world's most industrialized nations, the G7, chose to send Ms Harris and national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Meanwhile, the president will head to Los Angeles for a campaign fundraiser with actors George Clooney and Julia Roberts, as well as former President Barack Obama.

President Biden and President Zelensky signed a 10-year security agreement Thursday on the sidelines of the G7 meeting.

China, Russia's main ally, will not participate.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has said it believes any such international peace conference should include Russia and Ukraine, although Beijing supports efforts to end the conflict and is following developments in Switzerland.

The final list of participants is not expected until late Friday, and questions remain about how major developing countries such as India, Brazil and Turkey will participate, if at all.

But so far, less than half of the United Nations' 193 member states are planning to attend, prompting a wait-and-see attitude in many world capitals.

"Russia doesn't have many allies in this particular situation," said Keith Krause, a professor of international security studies in Geneva. "There are a number of countries that are sensitive to the pressure and some that actually want to stay out of what they see as a northern, US-Russia, NATO-Russia confrontation."

What can be expected?

Those who do not agree with the meeting have said that it will hardly mark any substantial achievements towards peace without Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin's government does not believe that Switzerland, which has joined European Union sanctions against Moscow over the war, is neutral.

Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's UN ambassador, said peace talks without Russia's participation are "a road to nowhere".

The Russian state news agency RIA-Novosti quoted the Russian ambassador as saying that "in practice, the main goal is to present an ultimatum to the Russian Federation in the form of Zelensky's so-called "peace plan".

The participants are expected to come together around a joint document or plan, and Ukraine will have a lot of input into it. But "ironing out" the language that delegations can agree on is still a work in progress and may explain why some countries are not yet saying whether they will participate.

Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's chief of staff, said Ukrainian officials wanted countries that respect Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity to be invited. He said that the basis of the talks should be a 10-point peace formula presented by President Zelensky, while leaving open the possibility that Russia could be invited to a second such summit.

Asked what would be the measure of a successful summit in Burgenstock, he replied: "We think it is already a success, because it is a large number of countries (that will participate).

What is Ukraine's peace formula?

Ukraine's peace plan drawn up by President Zelenskyy outlines 10 proposals that summarize the president's views on ending the war against Russian aggression, now in its third year.

The plan presents ambitious goals, including the withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied Ukrainian territory, the cessation of hostilities and the restoration of Ukraine's state borders with Russia, including Crimea. This is an unlikely outcome at this stage of this war, as Ukraine is unable to negotiate from a position of strength. Moscow's military has the advantage in firepower and troop numbers, while Kiev's momentum has been stalled by delays in Western military supplies. For this reason it is likely that the most controversial elements of the plan will not be debated.

Only three topics will be on the meeting table: nuclear security, including the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant; humanitarian aid; and food security, not only in Ukraine but globally, particularly the widespread effects of the war on Ukraine's agricultural production and exports.

Western officials in Kiev said these topics touch on international interests and are easy for Kiev to rally the international community. But they do not include the more difficult issues that can only be resolved with Moscow as a negotiating partner.

Russia's reluctance to the conference stems in part from its reluctance to show any sign of accepting the Ukrainian peace formula, which it rejects, or any red lines set by Kiev.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has backed a deal that would build on a draft peace deal negotiated in the early days of the war, which included Ukraine's neutral status and imposed limits on its armed forces, while delaying talks on the status of areas occupied by Russia.

What is the way forward?

Professor Krause said that Ukraine should emerge from the conference with a strengthening of commitment from its main allies and partners on key issues such as territorial integrity and future relations even if membership in NATO and the EU may be a long way off.

He said Ukraine would like support for the position that it is up to Kiev to determine the terms on which the war will end.

"I don't think anyone is under the illusion that a new peace plan will emerge from the meeting, or even some kind of agreement that ends hostilities on the battlefield," Krause said. "But as past wars since World War II have proven, peace talks begin long before the fighting ends on the battlefield."/ VOA