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Are the balloons from Belarus contraband, a hybrid attack, or both?

2025-11-12 08:26:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Lithuania's prime minister has called it a "hybrid attack" after hundreds of weather balloons flew across the border from Belarus, causing chaos at airports. But the incidents also point to a vast and long-standing smuggling network, said to have high-level connections in Minsk.

Flying at an altitude of about 13 kilometers, the balloons increased so much in late October that they forced the closure of several airports, affecting about 140 flights and 20,000 passengers.

On October 29, Lithuania – a member of NATO and the European Union – closed its border with Belarus for a month, and Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene said that the measure could be extended “for as long as necessary.” But the balloons themselves are not an entirely new phenomenon.

Black market tobacco

Their appearance in the skies over the two countries dates back to the time when Lithuanian authorities decided to combat cigarette smuggling by trucks across the border.

In 2023, Lithuanian customs seized 11.9 million packs of cigarettes. That same year, they began installing new X-ray screening systems at border crossings. It was also the year that the Lithuanian border service reported three balloons arriving with smuggled cigarettes.

Last year, the figures changed significantly: only 2.3 million packs of cigarettes were seized by customs, as smugglers began using other methods such as drones, small boats and a reported 226 balloons.

This year, the number of balloons has increased further: 546 balloons were reported from January to October. Border guards believe that this method now accounts for 80 percent of all cigarettes smuggled across the border.

Syarhey Besarab, a Belarusian chemist and science popularizer, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's (REL) Belarusian Service that a balloon capable of carrying a load of 40-50 kilograms costs about 500 euros.

This would translate into about 1,500 packs of cigarettes with a market value of around €3,450. Furthermore, there is very little chance that the balloons will deviate from their flight path.

"The wind blowing at the surface and the wind at high altitude are two very different things. Up there, the wind is steady, which is why balloons rise to that altitude," Besarab explained.

These are large helium balloons that fly in large numbers. For example, on the night between October 3 and 4, Lithuania reported the arrival of 25 balloons from the Belarusian side.

"It is impossible to release so many balloons on a large scale in Belarus without being noticed by the special [security] services, it is fantasy," Besarab added.

His comments echo those of Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, who last month said that “it is quite clear that special structures, the Belarusian KGB, are involved in the sale of cigarettes from companies that produce official products, as well as those intended for the illegal market.” Belarus has long been identified as a source of international cigarette smuggling.

Who smokes Belarusian cigarettes?

In 2016, researchers from the University of Milan in Italy published a study titled “The Center of the Illicit Belarusian Tobacco Trade.” The study found that, in addition to counterfeit cigarettes, there was also a thriving market for “illegal whites,” “cigarettes legally produced in one country but intended to be smuggled into countries where they are not legally sold.”

The study provided a description of the main markets where Belarusian contraband brands were sold: Germany (30 percent), Poland (22.6 percent), Britain (17.8 percent) and Italy (9.7 percent).

Nearly 10 years later, the trade continues. Sources speaking to REL's Belarusian Service said that Belarusian cigarette brands are sold illegally in Lithuania, Germany and France.

Groups on the Telegram app are used for buying and selling. In one group, an individual was looking to buy Belarusian brand NZ cigarettes in bulk in Helsinki, Finland. Other groups were focused on Spain, Portugal, Germany and other EU countries.

The switch to balloons and the obstacles it has created have made smuggling a more visible political problem. The issue has become even more urgent after the violation of Lithuanian airspace by two Russian military aircraft on October 23, as well as the appearance of unidentified drones near airports.

Belarus denies any involvement in sending the balloons and has condemned the decision to close the border. Darius Antanaitis, a reserve officer in the Lithuanian army and media commentator, told REL that this was the best way to force the authoritarian Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, to change his position.

"Many Belarusians work in Lithuania and send money back to Belarus, filling the budget of Lukashenko's regime," he said.

"When Lithuania closes border crossings, Lukashenko's regime feels social, political and economic pressure."/REL