Antenat në çatitë e ambasadave/Ja si Rusia përgjon Evropën
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The European Union's soft power approach to problem solving is seen by the bloc's supporters as a unique alternative to the hard power mistakes made by others, such as the United States. This argument peaked in popularity after the Iraq War, when tanks and planes were scorned as an archaic answer to the problems of the modern world.
To be fair, the EU's soft power has worked quite a few times. After the breakup of Czechoslovakia in the 1990s, there was a period when the eastern half of that failed federation looked set to sink back into authoritarianism. But it did not delay its membership in NATO, and today business giants like IKEA, Tesco and other big western brands have their branches in Slovakia, just like in other Central European democracies.
And the EU claims a part of this merit not without reason. But the EU's soft power failed miserably to prevent Europe's biggest war since World War II. Her campaign based on gentler reasoning and persuasion of Vladimir Putin's regime to change its approach and negotiate rather than start war was equally unsuccessful.
Putin never hid who he was, nor his ideology and methods of governance. Faced with the frustrating conundrums of the modern world, he chooses war when it suits him. Invasion, political assassination and poisoning are the preferred tools of his regime, which he uses as pressure in exchange for various concessions.
He presented Europe with a choice: continue economic and trade cooperation, tolerating abhorrent domestic policies and Moscow's dominance of countries along its border territories, or return to conflict. In 1990, after the peaceful revolutions, the eastward enlargement of the EU brought about the erasure of dividing lines.
The success of democratic transformations in the former authoritarian countries of the Warsaw Pact was very much linked to the implementation of conditionalities from Brussels. The EU told countries: Obey our rules and you can enter the bloc. Many of them acted in this way, creating the EU's self-perception as a unique international non-military actor.
Even in 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, there were signs that this formula was no longer working. While Russia was not being offered membership, the EU offered old and new members assurances that it supported certain core values, such as human rights and democratic norms.
They were non-negotiable. But if that were indeed the case, it could not continue its economic engagement with Russia after an overt act of military aggression. Nothing like that happened. Moreover, cooperation with Moscow continued against the backdrop of Russia's bloody war in eastern Ukraine.
EU sanctions were largely decorative and irrelevant. And the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in September 2021 reaffirmed the fundamental truths of what the EU really cares about. It is true that France and Germany led the negotiations for the Minsk I and II Agreements of 2014 and 2015.
But 8 years of talks failed to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine but also to stop the bloodshed. (Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently declared that the deals had bought Ukraine "precious time," stressing that she did not believe they would bring peace.)
Worse, the EU's inability to formulate a means to deal with overt Russian aggression gave Putin a sense of impunity. In other words, it pushed him for further and all-out aggression in 2022. Some in Europe will have a hard time hearing this, but for a non-military international actor, it could be extremely dangerous to intervene. when it does not possess any serious military power to use.
Armies still matter in our age. Nothing else can fill this void. Let's remember this. In the event that the Russian attack against Ukraine had succeeded, the EU would have been powerless, relying only on Article 5 of the NATO Treaty to counter the Russian tank convoys that would have been deployed. just a few meters away from alliance territory.
The determination of the Ukrainians to defend their country, and the transatlantic solidarity shown by the arms supplies, transformed the war into a long conflict. On the other hand, it should be understood that Russia has chosen to detach itself from Europe, returning to its historical role as a permanent military threat to European civilization.
Now the EU must fill its credibility gap. It must become a military power to strengthen and protect its commercial and economic potential. Of course, this revives the old discussion of establishing a full army, a debate that started in the 1950s at the beginning of European integration.
This could mean that the bloc has its own military forces, or that European NATO members (some of which, like the UK, are not members of the EU), agree to improve European defense within the alliance. allowing for example operations that do not require US input but remain under alliance command.
But two things are certain. The Franco-German military leadership does not offer a credible approach (now many European states do not trust their top-down motivation and approach). And the romantic concept of a soft power strategy has failed with revisionist powers like Russia and China. It's time to think about using more difficult instruments.
Note: Oleksandr Moskalenko, researcher and fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). / Adapted from CNA.al
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