The opposition union is a virgin, but also a little pregnant

2024-06-26 18:17:00, Opinione Ardi Stefa

The opposition union is a virgin, but also a little pregnant

Illustrative photo

The successive electoral defeats of the opposition in Albania have long encouraged the debate about a cooperation between all opposition forces. Today, no single opposition party seems capable of first dominating the center-right and then challenging the Socialist Party and ousting it from power.

Berisha's Democratic Party, in these three years of internal war, did not achieve even the minimum promises for the overthrow of Rama, confirming that the ability to attract attention or to be an aggressive protagonist in the media is not the same as the ability to collect vote.

But, while the unification of the position or the union of the opposition parties seems to be dictated by "numerical" reasons, it is extremely difficult to realize for a number of political reasons.

First, there is a legal hurdle.

According to the current electoral law, coalitions are not allowed. That is, for all the opposition forces to have a probability of "victory", it must be accompanied by the establishment of a single new entity and the parallel fusion of the "existing" parties. Something that causes problems, from purely "practical" issues to purely political ones. The influence of some political forces on the electorate, e.g. it is mainly due to the attraction that still causes their name, symbols, ideology and history, (which in the case of small parties does not apply.). Who can guarantee that the elimination of these references will not affect the outcome of the elections in 2025 and beyond the existence of the opposition?

Another difficulty has to do with the role of opposition leaders and the accusations, mostly negative, that they have made against each other.

Despite the fact that time or coexistence in the opposition for 12 years has softened some contradictions, issues related to them will arise again and again. It is easy for political protagonists to leave insults and accusations behind.

But if this is perceived by voters as cynicism, then the whole project is undermined. These 3 years when PD and Berisha gathered without distinction in its ranks and made them leaders again, elements with a negative impact, when it brought the party under Meta's armpit, but at the same time it collapsed electorally with the departure of hundreds-thousands of democrats, it should to serve as a lesson for the opposition.

As a lesson that you don't make a new wardrobe with old suits, nor does change come from pulling skeletons out of the closet.

But lessons were not learned!

In a new scheme, without solid structures, with doubts between the parties or parts of the parties that will be able to compose it, the difficulties of political management will increase, while internal rivalries and the constant need to maintain balances (e.g. in the issue of the ballot paper or the composition of the bodies) will be added and all these hide the permanent risk of conflict and disintegration.

Convergences will not be easy even in the field of unfolding or presenting political programs. On many issues, the voters of the opposition parties have different attitudes. In addition, they have different positions on the acceptance or not of one or the other political figure for the role of leader.

The most critical question remains the political and programmatic aspect of the entire "opposition unification initiative". By itself, mechanical union to create a power perspective is not enough.

There is another difficulty for the opposition parties. That of pressure, especially during the first electoral coexistence. The opposition has regularly lost to Edi Rama, being united, even being in a broad coalition.

DP talks about unification and says that it has united by inviting other opposition forces to join them, but in fact the union has not happened and will not happen, simply the deputies who want a safe place on the list have joined. In fact, most DP deputies are with him, until they see the name on the list or not.

If we assume that Berisha is right when he says that he united the DP, the reality proves that both the allies and the DP have been shattered. What will happen if the opposition parties do not get what they want, that is, their leaders will not have safe places on the list? The division will begin again. They will be called broken chairs again, don't they represent the Democrats?

Deputies are not ashamed to, for the sake of the chair, go from one side to the other, but those who are divided on the basis of the party for principles, have much more courage and do not find it so easy to unite for the sake of vegetables. Yes Yes! Who divides for principles, hardly unites for vegetables!

Of course the gray electorate will decide. Even if the opposition is united, it does not have the numbers or the votes to defeat Edi Rama. The gray electorate does not accept worn-out figures and, especially, anti-Western figures at the head of the opposition. And all of this goes in favor of the current majority, which is better served by a fragmented opposition, a DP with a logo and stamp rather than a DP without a logo and stamp, a Berisha at the head of the opposition with a deputy mandate, but closed- free under house arrest.

Leadership is always a key issue. The unification of the opposition presupposes the emergence of a leader who will be able to express it. This effectively marginalizes the current leaders. Will Berisha, who declares that he "came to stay" and is not accepted by a large part of the right-wing electorate and the international community, agree to leave for the sake of another leader?

He can hardly do it. Political parties in Albania are the private property of the presidents, and the entourage around them accepts this without a second thought, simply for petty interests.

And the new leader, even if he is officially elected from the base, will he have the special weight to impose himself on the entire unified space or will he be treated as the heir of the old leader, who never left. Or will it be considered as the product of an opportunistic compromise, which will weaken over time until the first electoral confrontation with Edi Rama?

All of the above are certainly not predictions of what will happen.

Much more will be understood along the way. If the image of the current government is further tarnished by scandals, demand for government change is strong, and spirits are revived, any difficulties will be easier to manage.

However, the most critical issue remains the political and programming aspect of the entire effort to unify the opposition.

I repeat: "The mechanical union to create a perspective of power is not enough, because, if the project is seen as an opportunistic agreement for the sake of the "chair", then the difficulties of the "marriage of the opposition" will be much greater."/ CNA