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Officials in Moscow and occupied Crimea have been quick to say that the damage to Russia's only bridge to the peninsula is not serious and that road and rail traffic will soon be restored.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Marat Khusnullin has given assurances that the piers have not been damaged and that the bridge will be fully repaired by November 1.
However, the attack has hit the main logistics route through which Russian military forces are supplied, not only in the Crimean Peninsula, but also in southern Ukraine, where Kiev is waging a counter-offensive to regain control of the territory that Russia has seized. , since he started the war in February 2022.
"The Crimean bridge is the main logistical link," said Pavlo Lakiychuk, a military analyst at the Kiev-based Strategy XXI institute.
"Even if the railway on the road is closed for, say, six hours, and the supplies are stopped for that number of hours, that means a six-hour break for our troops, as fewer bombs will be launched against them. This is a plus."
Lakiychuk rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin's claim that the bridge "has not been used for a long time" for military transport.
"The bridge has been and remains one of the main supply arteries for the Russian forces located in the south of Ukraine, including Crimea," he said.
He said that the bridge is used to transport heavy equipment, which Russia is using in the war against Ukraine.
"The delay in the supply of these equipment for an hour, two, three, six, or 12 is vital for our military troops, who constantly face fierce battles", said Lakiychuk.
"The channel of supplies to Russia is blocked", he declared, among other things.
Khusnullin, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, who is engaged in supervising the repair works, wrote on July 18 in Telegram that a part of the bridge has been reopened for car traffic. The damage caused to the bridge has also had an impact on civilians in Crimea.
Supplies of food and other products - across the bridge - have been halted, at least temporarily, and the Russian occupation authorities have warned that it will take several days for traffic to be restored.
The trucks are being transported by ferry, but transportation may be compromised due to high winds in the area.
This month, before the attack, truck drivers were already reporting delays due to inspections.
When explosions were heard in the Crimean city of Kirchi, at the end of the bridge, on July 9, de facto officials told residents that the bridge was not targeted.
“Njerëzit në Krime kanë të drejtë kur brengosen për urën e Kërçit, sepse transiti përmes territorit ukrainas të pushtuar nga Rusia, nuk është i sigurt”, ka thënë Lakiychuk. Faqja e lajmeve Kerch.fm ka raportuar në qershor se shoferët e kamionëve kanë refuzuar që të udhëtojnë nga Rusia në Krime dhe anasjelltas përmes pjesëve të pushtuara në jug të Ukrainës, për shkak të sigurisë së ulët.
Krimeja konsiderohet zonë lufte dhe gadishulli është shënjestruar nga një numër sulmesh me dron dhe sulme tjera më 2023. Autoritetet pushtuese janë në proces e sipër të ndërtimit të llogoreve dhe fortifikimeve tjera.
Megjithatë, analisti ushtarak ukrainas, Mykhaylo Prytula, kolonel i pensionuar ushtarak, i ka thënë Radios Evropa e Lirë se strategjia e Kievit është që ta izolojë gadishullin sa më shumë që të jetë e mundur.
“Në një moment, Krimeja do të jetë thjesht një ishull pa ndonjë qasje në tokë, apo përmes urës së Kërçit”, ka thënë ai.
“Imagjinojeni një Krime pa ujë. Pa furnizime ushtarake… Gjithçka që do të funksionojë është aeroporti dhe ndoshta portet. Trafiku rrugor do të mbyllet, dhe njerëzit nuk do të mund t’i evakuojnë sendet e tyre”.
“Në atë pikë, zgjidhja e vetme do të jetë dorëzimi ose ikja”, ka thënë Prytula.
Ura e Krimesë, e gjatë 19 kilometra, e cila mundëson trafikun rrugor dhe atë hekurudhor, është hapur në maj të vitit 2018 dhe i ka kushtuar Rusisë 4 miliardë dollarë.
Ura është inauguruar nga vetë presidenti rus Vladimir Putin.
Kievi nuk e ka marrë përgjegjësinë për shpërthimin – i dyti në këtë urë brenda 10 muajve – mirëpo mediat ukrainase kanë raportuar se shërbimet e sigurisë i kanë nisur dy dronë të marinës për ta kryer operacionin. Lakiychuk ka thënë se diçka e tillë përbën përparim të rëndësishëm teknologjik për Kievin.
Ai ka thënë se Ukraina ka nisur t’i përdorë dronët detarë pas nisjes së luftës së Rusisë në Ukrainë, në shkurt të vitit 2022, dhe se puna është kryer “në gjendje lufte”.
“Nëse kjo është e vërtetë, pala ruse nuk ka qenë e përgatitur për kapacitetet ushtarake ukrainase të përdorimit të dronëve”, ka thënë ai. Ai ka shtuar se operacione të tilla prodhojnë informacion të vlefshëm për shërbimet ukrainase të inteligjencës, në mënyrë që operacionet në të ardhmen t’i ketë të suksesshme.
“Inteligjenca do të ketë shumë punë tash”, ka thënë Laviychuk.
The July 17 eruption follows a major eruption in October 2022 that blocked the bridge for months.
Lakiychuk said that the fact that the bridge was damaged in both cases means that its foundations are vulnerable.
After the explosion that occurred on the bridge in October 2022, Russia was forced to increase controls in both directions, said Refat Chubarov, president of the World Congress of Crimean Tatars, based in Kiev, on June 30. before the final explosion occurred.
"These measures will continue to be applied as long as the bridge exists, until it is destroyed one day by Ukrainian missiles. I think it will happen soon", he said./ Rel
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