North Korea and the war in Ukraine

2024-10-26 10:56:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Footage from the "landing" of North Korean troops in Russia

That Russia and North Korea cooperate in principle is nothing new: in June, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Pyongyang to negotiate a security partnership with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Earlier, there were speculations about large shipments of North Korean weapons, especially artillery ammunition. In 2023, the Ukrainian secret service HUR reported that a North Korean military contingent had already arrived in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

3,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia

But findings published last Friday by the South Korean secret service NIS give the matter a whole new dimension - according to these data, Pyongyang is preparing up to 12,000 soldiers for the Russian war against Ukraine. Of these, 1,500 have already been transferred to the Russian port of Vladivostok. NIS is now even talking about 3,000 soldiers of this country in Russia. According to the same information, they have received Russian uniforms to hide their identity. DW's fact-checking team was able to confirm that the footage provided by the NIS shows locations in Russia's Eastern Military District. Neither Russia nor North Korea have yet officially confirmed these claims.

"At the moment there is little concrete information, there is only a lot of non-specific speculation," says Nico Lange, a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), in an interview with DW. There is no doubt that for some time, that is, immediately after Vladimir Putin's visit to Pyongyang, North Korean armed forces construction crews have been in the occupied territories and are active in Ukraine."

North Korea and the war in Ukraine

Lange explains: "But one should not automatically draw a conclusion from this information circulating now that 12,000 North Korean soldiers fought alongside the Russians in Ukraine. This has not been noticed until now."

Ukraine seeks Western help against Putin's new alliance
However, from the Ukrainian perspective, this is a worrying development. As Russian President Putin presents himself as the cautious host of this week's BRICS summit, Kiev is concerned about further support. President Volodymyr Zelensky's so-called "victory plan" has failed to generate any momentum. Ukraine should fear that Donald Trump, who wants to cut off arms aid, will win the US presidential election in early November. He even recently blamed Zelensky for the Russian invasion, in a podcast.

Zelensky himself made it clear over the weekend that the country's partners attacked by Russia must respond to "clear evidence". "We must not allow evil to grow. If the world is silent now and if soon we regularly see North Korean soldiers on the front lines and if we regularly have to fight against the Shahed (Iranian kamikaze drones...), this will not will not benefit anyone in the world and will only prolong the war", stressed the Ukrainian president.

The restrained reaction of the West

It is crucial how the US will react now - after all, Washington is not only the biggest protector of Ukraine, but also the protecting power of South Korea. The US is also the most important member of NATO that speaks openly that there is "evidence" of the presence of North Korean troops in Russia. But Defense Minister Lloyd Austin is reticent: "What exactly are these soldiers doing there? That remains to be seen. If they intend to participate in this war on behalf of Russia, then that is a very, very serious problem ," he said at a meeting in Rome.

North Korea and the war in Ukraine

The problem is that it will probably affect the term of the next US administration under Donald Trump or Kamala Harris more. MSC Lange's expert believes that Europe will also host the US elections on November 5. "At the moment, I don't see the big countries in Europe coming together to develop a common strategy. What do we want? What are we going to do against Russia itself and against Russia's supporters?".

A NATO spokeswoman in Brussels said that if it turns out that these troops have been sent to fight in Ukraine, it represents "a significant escalation of North Korea's support for Russia's illegal war and a further sign of losses Russia on the front line". The alliance is currently discussing next steps.

"The fact that Europe has not yet reacted to the alleged deployment of North Korean troops is a fatal omission," says Roderich Kiesewetter, a German foreign policy expert. He said in the Bundestag: "Many European countries have been asking for this for a long time. First of all, Germany must finally change its position on this issue." He reiterated demands to lift restrictions on the range of weapons sent to Ukraine and should send it the most powerful systems and should extend an invitation to join NATO.

On Wednesday morning, Germany's Foreign Ministry summoned the charge d'affaires of the North Korean Embassy - and pointed out to the North Korean diplomat that Germany's security and the European peace order are threatened by possible support for aggression of Russia.

North Korea and the war in Ukraine

Win-win for Russia and North Korea, but for how long?

DW spoke about the Russian-North Korean coalition with Andrej Lankov, professor of history and international relations at Kokmin University in the South Korean capital, Seoul. He emphasizes that the participation of North Korean soldiers can benefit Russia by avoiding further mobilizations. "This war is popular in Russia, but only if most people don't get involved in fighting and if the war doesn't affect their daily life," Lankov stressed. According to him, there are fewer and fewer people in Russia who are willing to risk their lives, even if you are offered financial benefits that are provided for in military contracts.

On the other hand, North Korea wants money and technology from Russia. "A contract soldier in the Russian army gets $2,000 a month plus a bonus that can be up to $20,000. Pyongyang would be happy with half of that money for each soldier," Lankov says. Modern technology is equally in demand: "Under other circumstances, Russia would never be willing to share technology with such an unstable country, but now it has no choice." North Korea benefits from this.

But this expert believes that the cooperation will not last long. After the end of the war in Ukraine, relations can return to the previous level, because then North Korea would no longer be economically interesting for Moscow./ DW