USA, why it may take days to learn the winner of the presidential election

2024-10-26 09:35:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5, but the winner of what looks set to be a close race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump may not be known for several days. after the polls close.

As the votes are counted, one candidate may appear to be leading based on early data, but then there is the possibility that the result will change as more votes are counted.

This happened in 2020 when in some states Mr. Trump took the lead on election night, before the result was overturned by Democratic candidate Joe Biden, a phenomenon that Mr. Trump used for his false claims that the election was stolen.

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Nothing illegal had happened. Democrats mostly live in urban, more populated areas, where vote counting takes longer. Democrats make more use of the right to vote by mail. Republicans, at least until the 2020 election, voted less by mail, in part because of former President Trump's false claims that mail-in ballots were unreliable. These ballots take longer to count than votes cast on election day. Former President Trump, this time encouraged voting by mail, although he occasionally criticizes it.

There are seven undecided states that could determine the outcome of the election, each with its own rules for counting votes.

Here's what to expect on election day and in the following days:

ARIZONA

Voting by mail is extremely popular in Arizona. In 2020 nearly 90% of voters cast their ballots early, most by mail. Arizona election officials can begin processing and counting mail-in ballots as soon as they are received, but results may not be released until an hour after polls close on Nov. 5.

USA, why it may take days to learn the winner of the presidential election

Any mail-in ballots that arrive on election day cannot be opened until the polls are closed. This is often a large number of votes. In the 2022 congressional election, mail-in ballots that arrived on Election Day accounted for one-fifth of all ballots in Maricopa County, Arizona's largest. It took several days to count them.

Initial results on election night should be mostly early votes, which could favor Ms. Harris, before the numbers shift toward Republican rival Trump as votes cast on Election Day are counted. In the coming days, the results could again favor Ms. Harris as the late-arriving postal ballots begin to be counted.

GEORGIA

Early voting is popular in Georgia. Officials expect 65% to 70% of votes to be cast at the polls before Election Day. Postal ballots, which can account for about 5% of the vote, can be processed two weeks before the election. At this stage, the signature is verified to confirm that the vote is legal. For their counting, you have to wait for the election day.

USA, why it may take days to learn the winner of the presidential election

State law says that all early votes, those cast at the polls or sent by mail, must be counted and the results released by 8:00 p.m. local time on election night. Officials aim to have all votes, including those from Election Day, counted by midnight.

Ballots from overseas voters and military personnel will be accepted up to three days after the election if they are postmarked on or before November 5. So far there have been 21,000 such requests. In an election that is expected to end with extremely narrow margins between the candidates, the winner may not be known until those votes have been processed and counted.

MICHIGAN

As of the 2020 election, Michigan has for the first time created early voting and begun allowing counties with more than 5,000 residents to begin processing and counting mail-in ballots eight days before Election Day. Smaller counties can do this a day before November 5.

Officials hope the changes will allow the state to announce the result sooner than in 2020, when mail-in ballots could not be processed in advance. That's why Republican candidate Donald Trump came out on top on election night. Democratic candidate Joe Biden edged past Mr. Trump as mail-in ballots came in, which took longer to count. Former President Trump falsely claimed to be a victim of fraud.

USA, why it may take days to learn the winner of the presidential election

NEVADA

Slow vote counting in Nevada in 2020, which prevented the winner from being announced until five days after Election Day, prompted changes in the state that officials say will speed up the process.

The most important change is one that allows counties to begin processing and counting mail-in ballots on October 21. Poll workers can begin processing early votes as early as 8 a.m. local time on Election Day, rather than waiting until the polls close.

But the result in Nevada this time too may not be known immediately. Mail-in voting has become popular in this state, and it is the only undesignated state that accepts late-arriving mail-in ballots.

Any ballot postmarked on November 5 will be counted even if it arrives four days after the election. These late votes historically favor Democrats, so there could be a swing in Ms. Harris's favor as votes are counted after Election Day.

NORTH CAROLINA

Election officials begin processing mail-in ballots before Election Day. After polls close, the first results announced are likely to be mostly mail-in ballots, as well as early votes. Election Day votes will be counted and announced throughout the evening, with full results expected by midnight.

USA, why it may take days to learn the winner of the presidential election

Ms. Harris could lead early thanks to mail-in ballots, while Mr. Trump could close the gap as Election Day votes are counted.

However, if the election ends up being as close as polls suggest, the final result in North Carolina could remain unclear for a week or more. Mail-in ballots arriving on November 5, as well as ballots from overseas nationals and military personnel, are counted during the 10-day period following Election Day. In 2020, Mr. Trump's victory in this state was not confirmed until November 13, 10 days after Election Day.

PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania, rated as the most important state among the undecideds, did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day. This happened due to a large number of postal votes. Pennsylvania is among a small number of US states that do not allow election workers to process or count mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. local time on Election Day. This means it will likely take a few more days before the final result is known.

With more Democrats than Republicans voting by mail, early results, including election day ballots, probably put Mr. Trump ahead, but his lead is likely to shrink as mail-in ballots are counted.

USA, why it may take days to learn the winner of the presidential election

This pattern in 2020 also led former President Trump to claim fraud was taking place. This year, a new law requires most counties to announce at midnight on election night how many mail-in ballots remain to be counted in an effort to prevent conspiracy theories.

Wisconsin

Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is among the few states that do not allow election officials to process or count mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day. This means that there may be a delay in announcing the results of early voting.

In addition, many of the state's largest cities transport mail-in ballots to a centralized location for processing and counting. This can lead to a significant backlog of votes being reported all at once in the early hours of the morning, after the polls close.

In 2020, former President Trump and his allies falsely claimed fraud after Milwaukee, the state's largest city, announced around 3:30 a.m. about 170,000 mail-in ballots. Those votes boosted Mr. Biden's share, putting him in the lead for the first time. But that increase was expected because of the way the city processes ballots and the fact that Democrats were more likely to vote by mail. A similar thing is possible in this year's elections./ VOA