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What might be President Trump's administration's plan for Ukraine?

2024-12-04 21:37:11, Kosova & Bota CNA

What might be President Trump's administration's plan for Ukraine?

Donald Trump

President-elect Donald Trump's advisers are publicly and privately touting various proposals to end the war in Ukraine. According to an analysis by the Reuters news agency of the statements in question, as well as interviews with individuals close to Mr. Trump, large parts of Ukraine's territory would be given to Russia indefinitely.

The proposals from three key advisers, including retired General Keith Kellogg, who is expected to be President Trump's aide and special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, contain several common elements, including delisting Ukraine's NATO membership.

President-elect Trump has vowed repeatedly during the election campaign to end the nearly three-year-old conflict within the first 24 hours of taking office on January 20, if not sooner, but he has yet to say how. do this.

Analysts and former national security council officials have questioned whether Mr Trump could fulfill such a pledge given the complexity of the conflict.

Taken together, however, the statements by his advisers suggest possible revisions to a peace plan by President Trump.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, facing a troop shortage and growing territory losses, has hinted he may be open to negotiations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

Although still aiming for NATO membership, he said this week that Ukraine could find a diplomatic solution to reclaim some of its occupied territories.

But President Putin may not be ready to engage with the next US leader, analysts and former senior US officials say, as Ukrainians are at a huge disadvantage and Putin could gain more territory.

"Putin is in no hurry ," says Eugene Rumer, former US intelligence analyst on Russian affairs.

According to him, the Russian leader has shown no willingness to give up his conditions for reaching a ceasefire and starting talks, such as Ukraine's renunciation of NATO membership and the handing over of 4 regions that Putin claims are part of Russia. but which are not fully controlled by Moscow, a request that Kiev has rejected.

According to Mr. Rumer, it is likely that President Putin is buying time, gaining more ground and waiting to see what concessions Mr. Trump can offer at the negotiating table.

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Reuters news agency reported in May that President Putin was ready to end the war with a negotiated ceasefire that recognized the current front lines, but was ready to continue the war if Kiev and the West did not respond.

Russia already controls all of Crimea, having unilaterally seized it from Ukraine in 2014, and has since taken about 80 percent of the Donbass region, which consists of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as more than 70 percent of percent of Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, as well as small parts in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.

As of last week, Mr. Trump had yet to convene a task force to draft a peace plan, according to four advisers who declined to be identified.

Instead, some advisers have been tossing ideas around in public forums and some have passed it on to Mr. Trump, the sources said.

But in the end, a peace deal is likely to depend on direct personal engagement between the three leaders, Trump, Putin and Zelensky, advisers said.

The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that "one cannot comment on individual statements, without having an idea of ??the plan as a whole" .

Mr. Trump's spokeswoman, Caroline Leavitt, noted that President Trump has said he will "do what is necessary to restore peace and restore the strength of the United States on the world stage."

A representative for President-elect Trump did not respond to a question about whether he still plans to resolve the conflict on his first day in office.

Ukraine's government did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

A former national security adviser to Mr. Trump involved in the transition process said there are three main proposals: Mr. Kellogg's line, another from Vice President-elect J.D. Vance and a plan put forward by Richard Grenell. former director of National Intelligence.

What might be President Trump's administration's plan for Ukraine?

The plan presented by retired General Keith Kellogg, along with former National Security Council official Fred Fleitz, and presented to Mr. Trump earlier this year, envisions a "freeze" of the current battle lines.

Mr. Kellogg and Mr. Fleitz did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters was the first to report on their proposal.

Mr. Trump would send more US weapons to Kiev only if Ukraine agreed to peace talks. At the same time, he would warn Moscow that Washington would significantly increase aid to Ukraine if Moscow rejected the talks. Ukraine's NATO membership would be suspended.

Under this proposal, Ukraine would also be offered security guarantees by the United States, which could include increased arms supplies, once the deal is accepted.

In June, in an interview with the British station 'Times Radio', Sebastian Gorka, one of the expected deputy national security advisers, said that President-elect Trump had told him that he would force Putin to enter into talks by threatened with massive arms shipments to Ukraine if Putin refused.

Contacted by phone, Mr. Gorka called the Reuters agency "a trash news bin" and declined to make further comments.

Mr. Vance, who as a senator has opposed aid to Ukraine, floated another idea in September.

He told reporter Shawn Ryan that a possible deal would likely include a demilitarized zone on the current front lines that would be "heavily fortified" to prevent further Russian incursions. According to his proposal, Kiev would be denied NATO membership.

Representatives for Mr. Trump said he was not available for comment.

Donald Trump

Mr. Grenell, former ambassador to Germany under the Trump administration, has defended the idea of ??creating "autonomous zones" in the east of Ukraine, during a debate organized by the news agency "Bloomberg" in July, but did not give more details. He also suggested that Ukraine's NATO membership was not in America's interest.

Mr. Grenell, who did not respond to a request for comment, does not yet have a post in the new administration, although he continues to advise Mr. Trump on European affairs, a senior foreign policy adviser to Mr. Trump told Reuters. Trump.

According to him, Mr. Grenell was one of the few individuals who attended the September meeting in New York between Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelenskiy.

Analysts and some former national security officials believe that some elements of the proposals may be opposed by President Zelenskiy. His victory plan includes an invitation to NATO membership, and support for this plan from European allies and some US lawmakers.

Last week, Ukraine's foreign minister sent a letter to his NATO counterparts urging them to invite Ukraine for membership at Tuesday's meeting.

Some European allies have expressed willingness to increase aid to Ukraine, while President Joe Biden continues to send weapons. This could reduce President Trump's leverage in pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table

Mr. Kellogg's plan, which provides for increased aid to Ukraine if Putin does not sit at the negotiating table, could face opposition in Congress, where some of Mr. Trump's closest allies oppose additional military aid to Ukraine.