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Immediate membership of Ukraine in NATO / Is this possible?

2024-12-04 08:42:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Ukraine will immediately join NATO - with the part not occupied by Russia. In this way, the path to peace talks must be found. But is this possible?

Article 5 is the core of the NATO Agreement. It defines the obligation for support in case of self-defense, in case a NATO country is attacked. Each member decides what support is given.

"We will defend every centimeter of NATO territory", the outgoing president of the USA, Joe Biden, has repeatedly stated after Russia's attack on Ukraine. Ukraine wants to enter under this protection umbrella. NATO has repeatedly promised Ukraine's approach to the alliance, but without ever mentioning a date. Someday this country should be rewarded with membership for the defensive war against Russia.

NATO protection for a part of Ukraine?
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyj, has now proposed that the part of Ukraine, which is not occupied, be accepted into NATO. The territories occupied by Russia in the east and the Crimean peninsula annexed in defiance of international law (about 27 percent of Ukraine) should initially not be included in the alliance's protective umbrella. Zelensky will stop a further penetration of Russian troops and enable talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on a ceasefire.

Technically, only a partial validity of the NATO Agreement could be regulated on the territory of Ukraine. The accession document for Ukraine, which would have to be ratified by the 32 NATO member countries, can be formulated accordingly. As of now, Article 14 of the NATO Agreement includes additional protocols related to other issues.

Article 6 of the agreement describes NATO territory. For example, some islands in the Caribbean or the Pacific, belonging to France or Great Britain, are not NATO territory. During the period when Germany was de facto divided into two states FRG and GDR, the NATO Agreement applied only to the western part, i.e. the Federal Republic of Germany. While the German Democratic Republic was a member of the Warsaw Pact, the military alliance of the Soviet Union.

Many NATO member countries do not agree.
The issue is more, if the NATO partners, first of all the most important member USA, have the will to accept Ukraine as a member. The risk of being involved in a military conflict, in case of a further attack by Russia, is very great, German security politicians, among others, draw attention. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, during his visit to Ukraine on Monday (02.12.2024), made it clear that he does not agree to Ukraine's immediate membership in the Alliance.

Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has a different opinion. Shortly after leaving office in October, he said that the rapid acceptance of most of Ukraine into NATO could lead to a quick end to the war.

"Where there is a desire, there is a way to find a solution. But we need to establish a border, which defines where Article 5 can be claimed, and that Ukraine must control all the territory up to this border," Stoltenberg told the Financial Times in October. Even France, Poland and the Baltic states can partially accept a membership of Ukraine.

The Trump factor is difficult to calculate.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has repeatedly requested security guarantees from NATO as part of his "victory plan". According to the assessment of the German Major General Christian Freuding, head of the planning and direction staff of the Bundeswehr (German Army), Ukraine "has its back against the wall".

Therefore, Zelenskyj can imagine that he temporarily gives up on regaining control of the territories occupied by Russia. The head of Russia, Putin, among other things, has requested that Ukraine not join NATO, not even partially. It is unclear what stance the new US administration will take under President Donald Trump.

The Wall Street Journal reports, referring to sources from the future president's circles, that Trump may want Ukraine's membership "to be postponed for 20 years". It is unclear how he will achieve the end of the Russian war against Ukraine, as he has stated./DW