Does a second term of President-elect Trump offer an opportunity to improve US-Turkey relations?

2024-11-15 21:59:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Does a second term of President-elect Trump offer an opportunity to improve

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was among the first foreign leaders to congratulate US President-elect Donald Trump on his victory in November's election.

President Joe Biden has not hosted Mr. Erdogan at the White House, although they have met at high-level international meetings and held phone conversations.

Speaking to the journalists who accompanied him recently during his visits to Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan, President Erdogan expressed his hope for improving relations with the US, but added that to achieve this goal, personal meetings are needed and that Ankara will must wait to see what cabinet Mr. Trump will form.

The two leaders had a close personal relationship during Mr Trump's first term in office. However, bilateral relations were sometimes accompanied by difficult periods during that administration.

With Mr. Trump returning to the White House in January, analysts tell VOA that while there may be opportunities for more cooperation in some areas, they don't expect major changes.

Does a second term of President-elect Trump offer an opportunity to improve

James Jeffrey, who served as US ambassador to Turkey from 2008 to 2010, sees Ukraine as one of the issues where cooperation is possible. Referring to Mr Trump's pledge to end the war in Ukraine, Mr Jeffrey said Turkey could play a role in negotiating a ceasefire, increasing the likelihood of "a productive relationship".

Even Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow for national and international security at the Center for American Progress, believes that Mr. Trump's priority to end the war in Ukraine creates a good chance for Mr. Erdogan.

As a NATO ally, Turkey has followed a delicate balance regarding the war in Ukraine by supplying Ukraine with drones while simultaneously maintaining ties with Russia in energy and tourism.

President Erdogan, who has maintained good relations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, has long said that neither side benefits from war and has offered to broker negotiations between them.

Dispute over Syria

One of the disputes between the two countries during Mr Trump's first term concerned Turkey's displeasure with US support for the Kurdish militia-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - the People's Protection Units, known as the YPG in Northern Syria.

After a phone call with Mr. Erdogan on October 6, 2019, then-President Trump suddenly announced that the US would withdraw from Syria. Many US military officials, caught by surprise by the announcement, did not support the idea.

Does a second term of President-elect Trump offer an opportunity to improve

Tensions between the allies worsened after Mr Trump sent a letter to Mr Erdogan on October 9, warning him against a military incursion into Syria. Following Mr Trump's announcement of the US withdrawal, Turkey launched a military operation in northern Syria targeting the YPG on October 9.

A ceasefire agreement was reached during then-Vice President Mike Pence's visit to Ankara on October 17.

Some in Ankara predict that the United States will reconsider the American presence in northern Syria during Mr. Trump's second term. Mr. Jeffrey, the US envoy to Syria from 2018-2020, suggests that Mr. Trump's administration may reassess the issue.

"When the advisers managed to convince (Trump about Syria), their arguments were that the (American) troops there served a number of important objectives. It is one of the least expensive military deployments with great benefits. We are keeping the Islamic State under control. Secondly, we are present on a vital ground, restraining the ambitions of Iran, Assad and Russia", he says to the Voice of America.

Washington has long said its partnership with the SDF is necessary to make the defeat of ISIS sustainable as well as in the face of the threat from Iran.

Ankara considers the YPG a Syrian branch of the PKK, which US officials also consider a terrorist organization.

President-elect Trump nominated Marco Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida, for secretary of state. He was one of the strongest opponents of a US withdrawal from Syria at the time.

He called that decision "a catastrophic mistake that will have dire consequences beyond Syria," urging Mr. Trump to reconsider.

Does a second term of President-elect Trump offer an opportunity to improve

"We will have to wait to see if Marco Rubio's views may have changed to more closely align with Trump's or vice versa. But anyone who thinks Mr Trump's election means the US will soon withdraw from Syria , should re-evaluate this point of view in light of Rubio's nomination. I think this means we will not withdraw from Syria," Mr. Makovksy told VOA.

F-35 aircraft program

One factor that complicated US-Turkey relations during Mr Trump's first term was Turkey's purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, which prompted Washington to exclude Ankara from a joint program for F- 35.

"The F-35 aircraft program cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence-gathering platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities," a White House statement said in July 2019, explaining the decision. the US to exclude Turkey from the project.

Then-President Trump's administration sanctioned Turkey in December 2020. Turkey, which has since asked for the sanctions to be lifted, has returned to talks with US officials about a possible return to the F-35 jet program. Analysts say that although sanctions could be lifted during Mr Trump's second term, any solution to the S-400 program issue that would not be permanent would not be technically acceptable to the US military.

"A permanent solution would be to withdraw the [S-400] systems, to sell them to someone else," says former ambassador Jeffrey.

Mr. Makovsky considers it impossible for Turkey to return to the F-35 program in the near future.

"If they completely abandon the S-400 system, as the law requires, there may be a chance to go back to the F-35," he told VOA.

But he adds that this will depend on the positions of the senior leaders of the Foreign Affairs Committees of the House of Representatives and the Senate./ VOA