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Four possible scenarios for the drone attack on the Kremlin

2023-05-06 13:07:00, Blog CNA

Four possible scenarios for the drone attack on the Kremlin

Two drones carried out an attack inside the Kremlin compound on Wednesday morning. We don't know exactly what happened, but Moscow's claims of a Ukrainian attack are dubious to say the least. Russia may actually have a serious problem with domestic terrorism. But on the other hand, it is more likely that Vladimir Putin's regime is preparing an excuse for a new escalation of the conflict.

The Kremlin is a walled complex that surrounds several government buildings and ancient churches and palaces. The New York Times has verified 3 videos, 2 of which appear to show "a drone flying and exploding over the Senate building," where the president's executive office is located, and the other showing the dome of the Senate building on fire.

That's as far as we know. The Russians, of course, are blaming the Ukrainians and claiming the attack was an attempt to kill Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was at his residence in the Moscow suburb of Novo-Ogarevo at the time, Russian officials said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied the accusation, and specifically denied targeting Putin: "We are not attacking Putin or Moscow," he said during his visit to Finland. "We fight on our territory" - added the Ukrainian president. But who would (or could) launch such an attack?

I foresee 4 possibilities. First, it is likely that the Ukrainians or some Ukrainian team in Moscow may have used drones. But that doesn't make much sense. An attack on the Kremlin could be a highly symbolic act. But a demonstration strike on an empty building at night would be a waste of scarce Ukrainian intelligence resources. Moreover, this is likely to disturb Ukraine's relations with the Americans and NATO.

A second possibility is that a group within the intelligence services is behind it,

as a way to push Putin to use even more force in Ukraine. My friend Nik Gvosdev, a fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research, reminded me today that the secret services enjoy such moves.

In 2002, terrorists took hundreds of hostages in a theater in central Moscow and over the years

there have been accusations that the intelligence services knew it was going to happen and yet allowed it as a means of having more powers in the future to deal with such events.

However, this seems like a very complicated explanation. The Russian military needs more cannon fodder, but the Russian Ministry of Defense is probably realizing that its campaigns are reaching their limits. The intelligence services have come under heavy criticism since they misled Putin about the chances of success in Ukraine.

So they may want to use a bomb on the Kremlin to push their claims for more resources and power. But on the other hand, they risk that a drone attack in the heart of the city will be interpreted as more proof of their incompetence.

It is also possible that the attack on the Kremlin came from Russian dissidents, especially if it was done with some kind of not very sophisticated device. Again, not very likely, but not entirely impossible, especially given the popular anger at conscriptions that were supposed to never reach Moscow and St. Petersburg.

In this case, the intelligence services would have every incentive to blame Kiev, because the worst thing for them would be to be unable to stop an assassination attempt by the Russians right under their noses. Russia is already functionally a fascist state, and a plot to bomb the Kremlin and kill the president could be just the right trigger to undertake the massive iron-fisted crackdown that Putin and his advisers have so far avoided.

But the most disturbing possibility is that this is a plan approved by the Russian government, from start to finish. And there are several reasons why this scenario makes more sense than other explanations. First, an attack on the Kremlin would give Putin the justification he is looking for for the kind of dramatic and more lethal action that might not make much sense militarily, but that would destabilize Ukraine and worry the world on the brink of a major counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army.

I believe the Russians fear this upcoming operation, and want to change the narrative at home and abroad. I have no idea what cards Putin has up his sleeve, but even on his best days, he is prone to idiotic strategic moves. He could try to drag Belarus into the war as well, he could make more nuclear threats, or even order new attempts to kill Zelensky.

In any case, a staged drone strike would be in keeping with Russia's long-standing penchant for such operations, particularly those dating back to the Soviet era. The series of bomb attacks on several apartments in Russia in 1999, which became the pretext for the escalation of the War in Chechnya, were almost certainly carried out by the Russian secret services.

And last year, the Russians warned that the Ukrainians would launch a "dirty bomb," a claim so ludicrous that even China was forced to advise the Kremlin to stop playing around with nuclear threats. This drone strike looks like the same game, but without the nuclear materials.

A terrorist attack in the capital would be a pretext for the Russians to warn the world that this time they are serious. Ukrainian officials are concerned that this is precisely Russia's plan.

Mihailo Podoliak, an adviser to Zelenskiy, told the BBC that the incident showed that Russia could be "preparing a large-scale terrorist provocation" in Ukraine.

This is a very scary possibility, given that the Russian plan already consists of indiscriminate war crimes. "Something is happening over the skies of the Russian Federation, but without Ukrainian drones over the Kremlin," he added. On this point I also agree, but soon we will know more, and we must prepare for what the desperate dictator of Russia will do./ Adapted from CNA.al

 

 

 

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