Ukraine's future counteroffensive may dictate its future and that of Europe

2023-04-25 07:48:00, Blog CNA

Ukraine's future counteroffensive may dictate its future and that of Europe

Illustrative photo

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are preparing to go into action. They are checking their devices, and writing what may be their last letters to relatives. We don't know when and where, but very soon Ukraine will launch its long-planned counter-offensive against the Russian invaders who have illegally occupied and through much destruction and massacre nearly 1/5 of the country.

The fate of Ukraine and the shape of Western alliances may depend on exactly what happens in the coming weeks. Ukraine may never have a better chance than this. The Russian invaders have weakened significantly. Over the past 2 months, Russia has only marched a peripheral area around the city of Bakhmut in the Donbass region.

But it has so far failed to replace the tens of thousands of men it lost there. Russian President Vladimir Putin has passed several new laws that will make new recruits easier, but it will be months before his new recruits are ready to be sent to the front.

Ukraine has received a large amount of NATO-standard weapons: tanks, high-precision missile systems, powerful artillery, and millions of rounds of ammunition. Fighter jets are on their way, though only from Poland and Slovakia.

America and the major European powers are still reluctant to send theirs, as they have long done over tank supplies. But what should Ukraine do with the advantage it currently enjoys? It should try to break, or at least disrupt, the land bridge connecting Crimea with Russia, via the Donbass.

The creation of this land bridge is the only achievement Putin can boast of for all the blood shed and Russian money spent in his war. But this land bridge is wide. Without it, Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula it invaded and annexed in 2014, is vulnerable, accessible only by sea or via the Kerch road and rail bridge, which someone (presumably Ukraine) blew up partly in October last year.

The battlefield has been remarkably static over the past 5 months, since Ukraine pushed the Russians back across the Dnieper River in Kherson province in November 2022. This is bad news because it suggests the conflict risks freezing along a "contact line" of new, which would leave Ukraine challenged along much of its south and east.

Moreover, it would deprive it of most of its access to the sea, a very big problem for a country that depends on the export of goods. It is good for Ukraine to go into the upcoming talks with more advantages, and under the conditions that Russia is facing a real challenge to the annexation of Crimea.

This may convince Putin that if he does not consolidate his defenses, he may lose what he has gained. And yet the risks are very high. Ukraine has a limited number of surface-to-air missiles needed to deter Russian bombers. Meanwhile, Russia has strengthened defensive lines along most of the front line, with multiple layers of trenches and anti-tank obstacles.

When counterattacking, Ukraine will need its troops to outnumber the enemy, and it can have a numerical advantage only in limited areas. Even if it succeeds in breaking through Russia's defenses, it will have to exploit such successes carefully, otherwise it will risk encircling its troops.

Pra, Ukraina dhe mbështetësit e saj perëndimorë, duhet të përgatiten për mundësinë që ky kundërsulm të sjellë vetëm disa përfitime dytësore apo akoma më keq. Por edhe nëse ata prishin urën tokësore që ka krijuar ushtria ruse, nuk ka asnjë garanci se Putini do të pranojë të ulet në tryezën e bisedimeve.

S’ka dyshim që ai shpreson se nëse e zvarrit mjaftueshëm luftën, mbështetja perëndimore për Ukrainën do të nisë të lëkundet. Mbështetësit e Ukrainës nuk duhet të supozojnë se beteja e ardhshme do të jetë e fundit. Kjo është gati i sigurt.

Pasi të largohet “pluhuri” i betejës, Ukrainës do t’i duhet ende të sigurojë çfarëdolloj përfitimi që ka arritur nga ky kundërsulm, dhe të forcojë mbrojtjen e saj për ta bërë më të vështirë marrjen e tokës ruse në të ardhmen. Fakti që ofensiva e ripërtërirë e Rusisë rreth Bakhmut ka shkuar aq keq, nuk do të thotë se do të neutralizohen të gjitha këto lloj sulmesh.

Amerika dhe Evropa, duhet ta bëjnë të qartë se do të mbështesin operacionet e mëtejshme ushtarake nga Ukraina. Dhe për ta penguar Vladimir Putin, ata duhet të bëjnë të qartë se do të mbështesin Ukrainën edhe për shumë vite në vijim.

The sooner the West starts detailing the security guarantees it will offer Ukraine, the better. America and Britain (as well as Russia) guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in 1994, but then did nothing when Putin brazenly violated it in 2014. The next assurances must be true./ Adapted from CNA .co.uk