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How can the Israel-Hamas war end?

2024-05-23 18:38:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Explosion in the Gaza Strip

Hamas continues to resist despite the damage it has suffered after seven months of fighting with Israel. This organization, designated a terrorist group by the United States, the European Union and Britain, has reorganized in the hardest-hit areas of northern Gaza and has even resumed rocket attacks on Israeli communities.

Israel initially gained a tactical advantage over Hamas, as airstrikes paved the way for ground forces. But these initial gains have now been replaced by the ongoing fight against a Hamas that adapts to situations. There is also a growing sense among Israelis that their military forces face only bad options, drawing parallels with the United States' wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

That was the backdrop to a rebellion in recent days by two members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's war cabinet. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and the prime minister's main political rival, Benny Gantz, demanded that the prime minister present detailed plans for the post-war period.

Benny Gantz, a member of the Israeli war cabinet and Prime Minister Netanyahu's main political rival

Both officials lent their support to Israel's response to the October 7 attack by Hamas, including one of the heaviest bombing campaigns in recent years, ground operations that devastated entire neighborhoods, and for restrictions at border crossings, which the UN Food Program says caused hunger in the Gaza Strip.

But now the two former generals fear a prolonged and costly occupation of Gaza, from where Israel has withdrawn soldiers and settlers since 2005. The two officials are also opposed to a withdrawal that would leave the territory under Hamas control, or that would lead to the creation of a Palestinian state.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant

They have presented their alternatives, which many Israelis say are wildly unrealistic. Meanwhile, Hamas has presented its plan for the post-war period.

FULL MILITARY CONQUEST

Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised "total victory" that would remove Hamas from power, eliminate the group's military capabilities and return dozens of hostages still being held since Hamas attacked Israel and sparked the war.

Mr. Netanyahu has said that victory would be achieved within weeks if Israel launched a frontal assault on Rafah, the last stronghold of Hamas, according to Israel.

Amir Avivi, former Israeli general and former deputy commander of the Gaza division, says this is just the beginning. He adds that Israel will have to continue to keep Gaza under control to prevent a resurgence of Hamas.

"Without drying the swamp, mosquitoes do not disappear. And draining the swamp means a complete change in the education system and establishing a relationship with local leaders and not with a terrorist organization," he says. "This is a generational process. It doesn't happen in a day."

During a protest against Prime Minister Netanyahu, calls are made for the release of hostages (Jerusalem, May 20, 2024)

Members of Mr Netanyahu's ruling coalition, who represent the far right and hold the key to his stay in power, have called for a permanent occupation, for the "voluntary emigration" of large numbers of Palestinians wherever they can. they also accept the reconstruction of Jewish settlements in Gaza.

Most Israelis are against it, citing the high cost of deploying thousands of troops to the territory, which is home to 2.3 million Palestinians. As an occupying power, Israel is likely to be held responsible for the provision of health care, education and other services. It is unclear to what extent international donors will help fund reconstruction as the fighting continues.

Palestinians waiting for aid trucks in the Gaza Strip (May 19, 2024)

There is also no guarantee that such an invasion would eliminate Hamas.

Israel was in full control of Gaza when Hamas was founded in the late 1980s. Israel's 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon coincided with the strengthening of Hezbollah, and Israeli forces are constantly fighting militants in the West Bank, which Israel has controlled since from 1967.

AN INCOMPLETE CONQUEST, ACCOMPANIED WITH A FEW LEAVES

Mr Netanyahu has said Israel will retain control of security in Gaza but will delegate civilian administration to local Palestinians who are not affiliated with Hamas or the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the occupied West Bank. He has suggested that Arab countries and other countries help with governance and reconstruction.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a government cabinet meeting

But so far no country has shown interest in this.

There have been no reports of Palestinians who may have offered to cooperate with the Israeli military, perhaps because Hamas has said they would be considered collaborators, a threat that carries the death penalty.

Attempts to establish contact with Palestinian businessmen and influential families "have ended in disaster," says Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer and now an analyst on Palestinian affairs at Tel Aviv University.

He says that Israelis seeking such allies are looking for mythological creatures that do not exist.

Arab states have also rejected this scenario - even the United Arab Emirates, which is among the few countries that officially recognize Israel and maintain close ties with it.

"The United Arab Emirates refuses to be involved in a plan aimed at justifying the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip," Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said this month.

ANOTHER ALTERNATIVE

Instead, Arab states have united in support of a United States proposal aimed at resolving the decades-old conflict and transforming the Middle East.

Under this plan, a reformed Palestinian Authority would govern Gaza with the help of Arab and Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, which would normalize relations with Israel in exchange for a defense pact with the United States and construction aid. of a civilian nuclear program.

But US and Saudi officials say that depends on Israel committing in a credible way to a future Palestinian state.

Mr Netanyahu has ruled out such a scenario - as have Mr Gallant and Mr Gantz - saying it would reward Hamas and result in a militant-run state on Israel's borders.

Palestinians say ending Israel's decades-long occupation and establishing a fully independent state in Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem - territories captured by Israel during the 1967 Middle East war - is the only way to ended the bleeding cycle.

Palestinians waiting to get a meal in the Gaza Strip

Hamas has said it would accept a two-state solution at least temporarily, but in its political program it continues to call for the "full liberation of Palestine," including the part that is now the state of Israel. Hamas has also said it should be part of the post-war solution.

A DEAL WITH HAMAS

Hamas has presented a very different proposal, which ironically may be more acceptable to the Israelis than the US-Saudi proposal.

The militant group has proposed a phased deal under which it would release all hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners - including top militants - as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, an extended ceasefire and reconstruction.

This would almost certainly leave Gaza under Hamas control and possibly allow it to rebuild its military capabilities. Hamas can even claim victory, despite the devastating mass death and damage to Palestinian civilians since October 7.

But thousands of Israelis have come out to protest in recent weeks, calling on their leaders to accept such a deal because it may be the only way to get the hostages back.

They accuse Mr Netanyahu of blocking such a deal because it could prompt his far-right allies to topple his government, ending his political career and exposing him to be prosecuted for corruption charges.

Relatives of hostages held by Hamas posing with their photos (Tel Aviv, May 23, 2024)

Proponents of such a deal say it would have other benefits for Israel besides freeing the hostages.

A low-intensity conflict with Lebanon's Hezbollah is likely to subside as regional tensions ease, allowing tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border to return to their homes. And finally Israel can deal with the review of security failures on October 7.

The country will also be able to prepare for another inevitable round of fighting.

Mr Milstein says Israel should accept Hamas' idea of ??a "hudna" - an extended period of strategic calm.

"Hudna does not mean a peace agreement," he said. "It is a truce that can be used to become stronger and then attack the enemy by surprise"./ VOA