
The accusation was as direct as it was serious: Russia is planning terror attacks against unspecified targets using airplanes, Poland's prime minister said.
"I will not go into details. I can only confirm the credibility of the fear that Russia is planning acts of air terrorism, not only against Poland, but against airlines all over the world," Donald Tusk said at a press conference on January 15.
Although shocking, the Polish leader's comments were not unexpected: there have been a growing number of suspicious, alarming and unexplained incidents in recent months.
Some of the incidents involved airlines and suspicions that Russia was seeking to place secret explosive devices on cargo planes, while others involved ships that have damaged undersea cables.
Meanwhile, in a large number of European capitals, it is abundantly clear who is to blame and what is happening: Moscow is waging a covert campaign against the West.
The seriousness of this problem was further highlighted by reports that US intelligence officials intercepted communications of Russian military intelligence officials discussing a bomb plot and that President Joe Biden had ordered two senior national security advisers to warn Russian officials.
Moscow has rejected Western accusations of terror attacks, including deliberate arson, looting, poisoning and attacks on individuals in the West.
What you need to know?
In July of last year, a package sent from Lithuania suddenly caught fire at a DHL warehouse in the German city of Leipzig, causing a fire. The fire was quickly extinguished, and the damage was minimal. But this was not the only case.
At the same time, 1,300 kilometers to the west, a similar incendiary device exploded at a DHL warehouse in Birmingham, England. It had arrived on a DHL plane.
Also, around the same time, a device at a transportation hub in Jablonow near the Polish capital, Warsaw, also exploded and caught fire. It took firefighters two hours to put it out.
These three fires, taken together, described a clear pattern – someone was deliberately planting incendiary devices on cargo planes. This alarmed law enforcement and intelligence agencies in Europe and North America.
Not just bombs.
The incendiary packages coincided with news of another incident that raised suspicions.
Në fillim të vitit 2024, Armin Papperger, drejtori ekzekutiv i gjigantit industrial gjerman, Rheinmetall, ishte në shënjestër të një plani për atentat, sipas Financial Times, CNN dhe New York Times (NYT).
Kjo kompani është ndër prodhuesit më të mëdhenj në botë të predhave të artilerisë dhe tankeve. Më e rëndësishmja, që nga pushtimi i plotë i Ukrainës nga Rusia në vitin 2022, kompania ka zgjeruar ndjeshëm prodhimin e predhave për Ukrainën.
Zyrtarët amerikanë e njoftuan Gjermaninë për komplotin, raportoi NYT, duke bërë që shërbimet gjermane të inteligjencës të ofronin mbrojtje dhe siguri për Pappergerin.
Ka pasur gjithashtu një sërë incidentesh në det - kryesisht në Detin Baltik - në të cilat anije të ndryshme kanë dëmtuar ose këputur kabllo nëdetësore të telekomunikacionit dhe energjisë.
Muajin e kaluar, autoritetet finlandeze ndaluan një cisternë nafte, Eagle S, që po lundronte nga Shën Petersburgu i Rusisë drejt Port Saidit në Egjipt. Autoritetet më pas gjetën se anija kishte tërhequr pas vetes spirancën, duke dëmtuar një kabllo në Gjirin e Finlandës.
Megjithëse anijet e përfshira nuk ishin ruse - ato lundronin me "flamuj" nga vende të ndryshme nga ato të pronësisë - zyrtarët në Finlandë dhe gjetkë i kanë akuzuar ato se i përkisnin "flotës së errët" të Rusisë.
Kjo flotë përbëhet nga anije - disa pa shenja dalluese, shumica e të cilave përdorin flamuj të vendeve të tjera - që Kremlini thuhet se e ka ndërtuar që nga pushtimi i Ukrainës më 2022 si një mënyrë për t’i shmangur sanksionet perëndimore. Sipas hulumtuesve ukrainas, pjesa më e madhe e naftës ruse tani shitet jashtë vendit përmes kësaj flote të errët.
"Flota e errët" gjithashtu mund ta ndihmojë Rusinë për të vëzhguar. Një raport i publikuar pas ndalimit të Eagle S gjeti se ajo ishte e pajisur me "pajisje të veçanta për transmetim dhe marre të informatave, që përdoreshin për ta vëzhguar veprimtarinë detare".
"Këtë vit ka pasur 500 incidente të dyshimta në Evropë", tha muajin e kaluar ministri i Jashtëm çek, Jan Lipavsky, para një takimi të ministrave të NATO-s.
"Rreth 100 prej tyre mund t'i atribuohen sulmeve hibride, spiunazhit dhe operacioneve të ndikimit rus", shtoi ai.
Çfarë ka ndodhur si pasojë?
Në fillim të këtij muaji, autoritetet finlandeze sekuestruan anijen Eagle S, duke e shpallur atë të papërshtatshme për lundrim. Një tjetër anije në pronësi kineze, Yi Peng 3, u ndalua dhe më pas u inspektua në ujërat ndërkombëtare pranë Danimarkës dhe Suedisë, pas dyshimeve se ajo kishte tërhequr spirancën dhe kishte këputur dy kabllo telekomunikimi. Anija përfundimisht u lirua për të vazhduar lundrimin drejt Egjiptit.
Në tetor, ndërkohë, Prokuroria e Përgjithshme e Polonisë lëshoi një komunikatë për pajisjet e paketave ajrore, duke njoftuar se katër njerëz ishin arrestuar "për pjesëmarrje në një grup ndërkombëtar sabotimi" dhe se po i kërkonte dy të tjerë.
"The group's goal was also to test the transfer channel for such packages, which would then be sent to the United States of America and Canada," she said.
Signs of a wider conspiracy were also mentioned by Thomas Haldenwang, the head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency, who told lawmakers that there had been a significant increase in Russian espionage and sabotage activities in Germany.
If the Leipzig package that caught fire had started burning during the plane's flight, "this would have resulted in the plane crashing," Haldenwang told lawmakers in September.
After August, as US and European officials began working with major airline executives to implement new screening procedures for cargo flights, Biden ordered two of his top security officials - CIA Director William Burns and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan - to contact top aides to Russian leader Vladimir Putin and warn them, according to the NYT.
U.S. intelligence agencies also obtained wiretaps of conversations between senior officials of Russia’s military intelligence agency, known as the GRU, the NYT reported. The conversations described how the packages that were set ablaze — which included small consumer electronics items — were a test for other attempts.
In October, the head of Britain's main intelligence agency, MI5, specifically mentioned the GRU, saying they were on a "sustained mission to cause chaos on British and European streets: We have seen arson, sabotage and more. Dangerous acts carried out with great irresponsibility."
Reactions
Although vague, Tusk's comments, made during a conference call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, were shocking because of their significance: the head of government made a public and explosive accusation, almost openly accusing Moscow of terrorism.
They also echoed comments from other Western officials who have said they suspect Russia is trying to wage a “dark” campaign — involving sabotage, espionage, disinformation — across Europe and North America. The goal? Destabilizing the West and undermining its support for Ukraine in its fight against ongoing Russian occupation.
For its part, Russia has repeatedly and loudly denied any involvement in the cargo plane's equipment or in the damage to the cables by the dark fleet. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called reports of an air sabotage plot an example of "a murky fabrication."/REL
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