Impact of demographic changes on Arizona elections

2024-10-22 19:11:39, Kosova & Bota CNA

Eligible residents of all 50 states will vote in this year's United States presidential election. But the results in seven undecided states are likely to determine the winner of the election.

The southwestern state of Arizona has traditionally favored Republican candidates, but Democrat Joe Biden won this state in 2020. As Voice of America correspondent Dora McCouar reports, there is an intense campaign for the electoral votes of this state this year as well.

Arizona, a state of over 7 million people, has historically leaned Republican. Over the past 76 years, only three Democratic presidential candidates have won in this southwestern state. Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020 and this election year, the race is close again.

“I think that kind of underlines the independent nature of Arizona. We don't identify with a party, but we also have some support for libertarians," says Thom Reilly of Arizona State University.

Libertarians believe that liberty is the most important political value and that it can be achieved by limiting the power of government.

"Predicting their vote is very challenging because the way they vote in one election is not necessarily a clear indicator of how they will vote in the next election. They are known for splitting their vote. So they vote differently," says expert Reilly.

Arizona's electorate is changing, including a growing Hispanic population that is joining the pool of eligible voters.

"In this election, voters under the age of 30 are now reflecting the population of Arizona at large, and that's the first time it's happened. There is definitely a trend among older Latino voters, perhaps, not to be predominantly Democratic. Younger voters tend to be Democrats," says Thom Reilly of Arizona State University.

The other big change in voting patterns is the large number of people, especially from California, who are moving to Arizona.

"They tend to be more Democratic or more liberal, and that has seeped into some of our larger metropolitan areas," says expert Thom Reilly.

More than half of Arizona's population lives in Maricopa County, which also includes the state capital, Phoenix. Whoever wins in Maricopa usually wins the state.

"Now we have a process of dominance of big cities in state-level politics," says Ken Miller of the University of Las Vegas.

Expert Thom Reilly says the top priority issues for Arizonans are the economy, reproductive rights and immigration. Two of those issues will be on the ballot in the November election, including Initiative 139, which would enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution and could increase voter turnout.

"That could have a pretty significant impact. In states where abortion rights have been voted on, there has been an increase in voter turnout , " says Jennifer Piatt from Arizona State University.

Initiative 314 would make illegal crossing of the border between Arizona and Mexico a state crime, something that is already a federal crime. One issue may increase turnout among more liberal voters, while the other may increase enthusiasm among more conservative voters.

"We may have cases where voters are going to vote on the abortion initiative, but they may not be happy with how the immigration and border issues have been handled and they may vote for a different candidate on those issues. It could also happen conversely, we may have cases where a voter supports the immigration initiative, but votes for a candidate who supports abortion. So the vote of such a voter is called split," says Thom Reilly of Arizona State University.

This means that some Arizonans may vote to protect abortion rights, then split on voting for former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris./ VOA