Oil, defense and geopolitics/ Why is Putin visiting Modi in Delhi?

2025-12-04 08:49:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay a two-day visit to India, where he will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attend an annual summit held by the two countries. Delhi and Moscow are expected to sign a number of agreements during the visit, which comes months after the US increased pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil.

The development also comes at a time when the administration of US President Donald Trump is holding a series of talks with Russia and Ukraine in an attempt to end the war. India and Russia have been close allies for decades, and Putin and Modi have a good relationship.

The BBC has brought a perspective on why the two need each other - and what to keep in mind when the leaders of the two countries meet.

A special friendship, trade agreements and geopolitics

Why are relations with India essential for the Kremlin?

To answer the question above, we must first start with the numbers:

-a population of nearly one and a half billion.

-economic growth exceeding 8%.

India is the world's fastest-growing major economy, making it an extremely attractive market for Russian goods and resources, especially oil.

India is the world's third-largest consumer of crude oil and has bought large volumes from Russia. This has not always been the case. Before the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, only 2.5% of India's oil imports were Russian.

This figure rose to 35% as India benefited from Russian price discounts caused by sanctions against Moscow and Russia's limited access to the European market.

In October, the Trump administration imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, arguing that by buying oil from Russia, India was helping to fund the Kremlin. Indian orders for Russian oil have fallen since then. President Putin will be eager for India to continue buying.

For Moscow, arms sales to India are another priority and have been since Soviet times. Ahead of Putin's visit, there were reports that India planned to buy Russian fighter jets and state-of-the-art air defense systems. Russia, hit by a labor shortage, also sees India as a valuable source of skilled workers.

But there is also geopolitics at play. The Kremlin delights in demonstrating that Western efforts to isolate it over the war in Ukraine have failed. Flying to India and meeting Prime Minister Modi is one way to do that.

So is the trip to China and talks with Xi Jinping, as Putin did three months ago. He met Modi on the same trip. The image of the three leaders smiling and chatting together sent a clear message that, despite the war in Ukraine, Moscow has powerful allies who support the concept of a “multipolar world.”

Russia values ??its borderless partnership with China. It is equally vocal about its special and privileged strategic partnership with India. This is a stark contrast to Moscow's tense relationship with the European Union. However, this week, expect to hear about Russia-India friendship, trade deals and increased economic cooperation between Moscow and Delhi.

Test of Modi's strategic autonomy

Putin's visit to Delhi comes at a crucial time for Modi and India's global ambitions. India-Russia relations date back to the Soviet era and have survived despite the changing geopolitical landscape. Putin has arguably devoted more time and energy to the relationship than any other Russian leader before him.

As for Modi, despite intense pressure from Western governments to criticize Russia for its war in Ukraine, he maintained that dialogue was the only way to resolve the conflict. This was India's "strategic autonomy" at stake, with Modi occupying a special place in the geopolitical order where he maintained close ties with Moscow while simultaneously preserving his relationship with the West.

This worked, until Trump returned to the White House. India-US relations have hit an all-time low in recent months as the two countries have failed to resolve the tariff standoff. In this context, Putin's visit takes on more significance for Modi than ever before, as it will test India's geopolitical autonomy. He will be walking a diplomatic tightrope here.

Modi would like to show Indians at home and around the world that he still considers Putin an ally and has not caved in to pressure from Trump, whom he has previously called his “true friend.” But he has also faced pressure from his allies in Europe — just this week, the German, French and British ambassadors to India wrote a rare joint op-ed in a major newspaper criticizing Russia’s stance on Ukraine.

And so, Modi will have to ensure that strengthening India-Russia ties does not overshadow ongoing trade talks with the US and its partnership with Europe. President Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India as a penalty for buying Russian oil. Modi's next priority will be to unlock the potential of bilateral trade between India and Russia.

Analysts have often said that the economic relationship between the two staunch allies has underperformed for decades. Their bilateral trade grew to $68.72 billion at the end of March 2025, from just $8.1 billion in 2020. This was largely due to a significant increase in India's purchases of Russian oil at a discount. This has tilted the balance heavily in Russia's favor, and this is something Modi would like to correct.

With Indian firms already cutting oil purchases from Russia to avoid sanctions from Washington, the two countries will look at other areas to boost trade. Defense is the easiest choice. India’s defense imports from Russia are set to fall to 36% between 2020 and 2024, from peaks of 72% in 2010-2015 and 55% between 2015 and 2019, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

This was largely due to India's efforts to diversify its defense portfolio and increase domestic production. But a closer look at these figures tells a different story. Some Indian defense platforms still rely heavily on Russia. Many of its 29 air squadrons use Russian Sukhoi-30 aircraft.

India's limited armed conflict with Pakistan in May this year proved the indispensable role of Russian platforms like the S-400 air defense systems in its armed forces, but also showed weaknesses that the country urgently needs to fix.

Reports suggest that India wants to buy the upgraded S-500 systems and the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet. Pakistan's purchase of the Chinese-made J-35 fifth-generation fighter jet has not gone unnoticed in Delhi, and the country would like to secure a comparable aircraft as soon as possible.

But Russia is already facing a shortage of critical components due to sanctions and the war in Ukraine. The deadline for delivering some S-400 units has reportedly been pushed back to 2026. Modi will seek some assurances on the timelines from Putin.

Modi would also like Russia's economy to open up space for Indian products to address the massive trade imbalance. Modi aims to position Indian goods in the Russian market, especially after the war ends and Moscow reintegrates into the global economy. He would seek to reduce trade dependence on oil and defense, aiming for a deal that strengthens ties with Russia while leaving room for deepening relations with the West. /CNA