Donald Trump's second term seems inevitable

2023-05-17 08:29:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Donald Trump

Everyone knows the famous expression of the writer F. Scott Fitzgerald from the end of his unfinished novel "The Last Tycoon": "There are no second acts in American life". But he wasn't talking about second chances.

He meant that unlike a traditional theater play—where the first act presents a problem, the second act reveals the complications, and the third resolves it all—Americans want to skip the second act and go straight to the act. third, to the solution.

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that Joe Biden's presidency is Act Two, and that Donald Trump is not the ultimate tycoon. Rather, it is Act Three. He is the next president of the USA. Of course, Democratic strategists think otherwise.

First, they believe that Biden beats Trump in any case. Second, they believe that Trump's numerous legal troubles will hurt his candidacy. But both of these views represent a spectacular failure of their imagination.

It's true: Trump is the first former US president to face criminal charges after a grand jury voted to indict him on March 30 over a hush-hush payment against porn star Stormi Daniels. This case is just one of 17 lawsuits and investigations currently facing the 45th US president.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday of last week, during a civil case, a jury in Manhattan, New York found him liable for sexual abuse and defamation (though not for rape) against journalist E. Jean Carroll, forcing her to pay to her $5 million in damages.

Carroll couldn't remember whether the alleged attack happened in 1995 or 1996. But the anti-Trump campaign has already begun to backfire. And this should not surprise us. Take a look at the last 8 cases around the world where a leading presidential candidate or potential prime minister has been sued.

Some, such as Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Italy's Silvio Berlusconi and Malaysia's Anwar Ibrahim - made sensational comebacks to politics only shortly after being banned from politics following a criminal conviction or imprisonment.

The others - Jacob Zuma of South Africa and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel - experienced continued political success despite ongoing criminal cases against them.

France is an exception: the lawsuits against the 3 main presidential candidates - Dominik Strauss-Kahn, former Prime Minister François Fijo and former President Nicolas Sarkozy - ended their presidential campaigns.

I was recently in Brazil, and I can say with some conviction that Lula's case is the closest analogy. Also because the USA and Brazil seem to be converging in terms of their political cultures. If Lula returned to power after 1 1/2 years in prison, Trump may have little reason to worry.

As he has not the slightest chance of being behind bars between now and the day of the presidential elections next year. In fact, the perception that Democrats are using the legal system for political purposes is likely to help him win votes.

This is a much better fable than his previous claim that the 2020 election was stolen, which now upsets almost everyone except Trump himself. It may seem paradoxical that Democrats are pressuring Trump through the courts if they want to run against him.

Because it draws media coverage to him, and it's the free publicity that Trump has always thrived on. Every article or minute of television airing on his legal battles gives him an advantage. If it were a two-player contest, there would be much more uncertainty about the outcome.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has not yet announced his intention to run. However, he has raised funds more successfully than Trump, not least because the donor class prefers the competence of a younger, more administratively skilled politician.

In head-to-head polls, DeSantis still appears to be in the race. But this won't be a two-man race. Former United Nations ambassador Niki Halej is also in the race. And most likely Trump's former vice president, Mike Pence.

Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also appear interested, as does Virginia Gov. Glenn Jankin. And let's not forget the renowned moderator Vivek Ramaswami. Only the former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, has declared his withdrawal from this ambition.

When voters are polled on those names, Trump is the clear winner, leading DeSantis by an average margin of nearly 30 percent, or 52.1 percent to 22.9 percent. In January, the difference was only 13 percent. Another candidate with over 5 percent support is Pence.

Of course, it is very early and a lot can happen in the next 18 months. A year and a half before November 2020, not many people predicted a global pandemic. Since 1972, the front-runner has won his party's nomination in just over half of the presidential elections.

However, this applies to Republicans, not Democrats. The primary process in this party favors candidates who have an early lead, because most states award delegates on a winner-takes-all or winner-takes-all basis.

Meanwhile, in primary elections within the Democratic Party, delegates are generally assigned proportionally by results, and the early frontrunner has won in only 4 of 11 contests. Democrats say Trump can't beat Biden, based on Trump's poor performance not only in 2020 but also in the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, when candidates he supported fared poorly.

But we have to admit: Biden is not as popular as world leaders. In their respective countries, Narendra Modi (India), Andres Obrador (Mexico), Antonio Albanese (Australia), Lula (Brazil) and Giorgia Meloni (Italy) are most liked. And if there is an economic recession between now and next year? The lesson of history is clear: the Republican front-runner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election./ Adapted from CNA.al

Done with the cuts