China aims to strengthen relations with Russia through the Prime Minister's visit

2024-08-22 22:30:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

China aims to strengthen relations with Russia through the Prime Minister's

Chinese Premier Li Qiang's four-day visit to Russia and Belarus this week is aimed, analysts say, at deepening cooperation between the two countries and strengthening relations between Beijing and Moscow, as their trade relationship shows signs of faltering.

Analysts say Beijing hopes through Mr. Li's visit to reassure Moscow that bilateral relations will remain positive, as well as to call on Russia to prevent an escalation of the war on Ukraine, despite the results both sides have achieved on the battlefield in recent days. last.

"China wants to assure Russia that the issues in their bilateral economic and trade relations are only logistical issues, while failing to convey the message that Beijing does not want to see an escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict," he told the Voice of America, analyst Philip Ivanov at the Asia Policy Institute.

Premier Li began his visit to Moscow on Tuesday and will end it on Friday, along with a stop in Belarus.

During a meeting with Mr. Li on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the increased trade relations between China and Russia and said that "bilateral" efforts had "yielded positive results."

"Our countries have developed joint high-level plans and projects in the economic and humanitarian spheres, which will continue over the years," declared Mr. Putin, adding that bilateral trade relations are not only developing, "but they are thrive.”

Mr. Li responded by saying that China is willing to strengthen bilateral cooperation through scientific and industrial innovation, while proposing that both sides deepen cultural, tourism and educational exchanges.

Besides Mr. Putin, Mr. Li also met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and the two sides agreed to advance relations in new sectors, such as the digital economy and green industry development.

Despite the optimism expressed by top officials of both countries, bilateral trade relations between China and Russia have been complicated in recent months by the reported decision of many Chinese banks to refuse direct payments from Russian entities in the Chinese yuan. and to increase the exchange value of the yuan to the ruble, the official Russian currency.

Meanwhile, according to media reports, Chinese exports to Russia must go through third countries, such as Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan, to avoid the sanctions imposed on Russia. This situation has caused a significant drop in Chinese exports to Russia this year.

According to analyst Ivanov, these trade complications have caused serious problems for Russia now that Moscow has become "almost completely dependent" on Chinese imports, such as auto parts and for factories, to keep its economy alive and war supplies alive since the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

"I expect that economic issues in bilateral relations will dominate the discussions (between Mr. Li and Russian officials) and while there may be progress, I do not expect it to be substantial, as some of these issues are not easily resolved," he told Voice of America. America.

Political and strategic relations

Mr. Li's visit comes amid efforts to strengthen strategic cooperation between the two countries. While Russia continues to fight Ukrainian forces on the battlefield, China and Russia have recently conducted joint patrols in areas near Alaska and Japan and held a joint naval exercise in the South China Sea.

During Mr. Putin's visit to China in May, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin released a statement saying they had agreed to deepen the "comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination" between the two countries.

"Statements by Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi in May gave some signals that there would be more security and military cooperation between Russia and China, and Mr. Li's visit is now part of efforts to elevate their comprehensive strategic partnership. ", expert Sari Arho Havren, at the Royal United Services Institute, told VOA.

Despite the agreement to deepen bilateral strategic relations, analyst Ivanov says the trajectory of the war in Ukraine and Russia's heightened relationship with North Korea remain factors that could complicate relations between China and Russia.

"During this visit, Mr. Li is likely to emphasize the need for Russia to avoid escalation, especially when it comes to the use of tactical nuclear weapons and attacks on nuclear power plants," added analyst Ivanov.

"China understands that the relationship between Russia and North Korea is primarily a military-industrial relationship, and since Beijing has direct communication channels with both countries, they think the risks of this relationship are manageable," he says.

NATO opposition

In addition to maintaining relations with Russia, some analysts say China also aims to demonstrate its ability to resist what it sees as increased NATO pressure through Mr. Li's visit to Belarus.

"Given China's increased concerns about NATO, the alignment with Belarus helps China prove that Beijing can resist NATO in various ways," says Columbia University senior researcher Elizabeth Wishnick.

In July, Belarus became a new member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Minsk and Beijing staged a joint counter-terrorism exercise with China near the Polish-Ukrainian border, which Ms. Wishnick said was intended to demonstrate to NATO that Beijing "has friends" in Europe.

Despite the challenges that exist in bilateral relations, analyst Ivanov says that strengthening diplomatic coordination globally between China and Russia is a common interest of China and Russia, as exemplified by the expansion of the BRICS organization and through their joint efforts to responded to global conflicts such as the war in Gaza, which will ensure that relations between them remain strong.

"The pace of diplomacy and the level of engagement prove that this is a partnership in which China and Russia are investing," he told the Voice of America./ Voa