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Turkey's trade embargo against Israel and its consequences

2024-05-09 15:45:59, Kosova & Bota CNA

Turkey's decision last week to freeze all trade with Israel is likely to hit Israel's economy hard. Turkey intends to exert pressure on the Jewish state to achieve a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. As Voice of America Istanbul correspondent Dorian Jones reports, concerns about the impact of this embargo include Turkey's efforts to encourage other countries in the Islamic world to do the same.

Turkey's ports are closed to trade with Israel. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says the embargo will only be lifted if a permanent cease-fire is reached in Gaza.

On Tuesday, President Erdogan asked the international community to exert more pressure on Israel. Analysts warn that this will have wider consequences.

“Turkey became the first country to impose a total trade embargo on Israel, including exports and imports. Turkey is likely to try to convince other countries, in the Islamic world, in the Arab world, to make the same decisions," says Sinan Ulgen, an analyst at the Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies in Istanbul.

Last year, Turkish-Israeli trade was worth nearly $7 billion, of which more than $5 billion were Turkish exports.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz condemned the embargo, vowing to find alternative suppliers.

Analysts warn that the Israeli economy will feel the consequences.

"There are many goods that we import from Turkey, such as cars, food, textiles and other items. Of course, other markets can be found that can supply Israel. But it will take time to find replacements and they will cost more," says Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Israel relies heavily on oil from Azerbaijan that is shipped to the Turkish port of Ceyhan from where it is then sent to Israeli refineries.

Azerbaijan is an ally of Israel and Turkey. It remains unclear how the Turkish embargo will affect the sale of this oil to Israel, but analysts warn that a supply disruption could have serious consequences for Ankara as well.

"This will antagonize Turkish-Israeli relations. Their improvement will take years. If it happens, it would also negatively affect relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The Israelis can say, 'We have other options,'" says Mehmet Ogutcu, analyst at the London Energy Club organization.

Trade has historically been the reason that has maintained Turkish-Israeli relations even in times of high tensions. However, analysts predict that the current level of hostility means that the embargo will not be lifted anytime soon.

"The normalization of relations between Turkey and Israel would only happen if the government in Israel was changed. Then the lifting of the trade embargo would also be taken into account", says analyst Sinan Ulgen.

However, the consequences of the embargo may extend beyond the current governments in Turkey and Israel. Observers warn that the restoration of trade and confidence may require a long time./ VOA