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75 candles on the birthday cake: How is NATO doing?

2024-04-04 09:55:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

75 candles on the birthday cake: How is NATO doing?

NATO Secretary, Jens Stoltenberg

75 candles on NATO's birthday cake. It is the oldest and only military alliance made up of democratic states in the world. She is always attractive. The alliance started in 1949 with 12 members. Today, 20 more countries have joined. Finland and Sweden joined recently because they are seeking protection from Russia. Ukraine and Georgia have agreed to join for the same reason. NATO's eastward expansion began 25 years ago with the inclusion of former Warsaw Pact members such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary into the alliance.

At the time, on NATO's 50th anniversary, there was a sense of optimism. The Cold War was thought to have been won. Russia was seen as a partner. In 1997, Moscow contractually agreed that it would raise no objection to eastward expansion. The Baltic States, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania followed as members in 2004. In 2009, Albania and Croatia joined the alliance. In 2017 and 2020, NATO annexed other parts of the former Yugoslavia - Montenegro and North Macedonia.

Russia says no

But Russian President Vladimir Putin began criticizing NATO's eastward course in the early 2000s. He claimed: When the former GDR was admitted to the alliance through German reunification in 1990, the Soviet Union was promised that NATO would not to expand into the sphere of influence of the former Soviets. However, this was never specified in writing. Moscow signed the Russia-NATO Act in 1997, which contains no such commitments.

In 2008, NATO promised membership in principle to Georgia and Ukraine. Later at that point, Putin made a strategic shift. He brought parts of Georgia under Russian control, in 2014 Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea and supported separatists in eastern Ukraine. Then came the all-Ukraine attack in 2022. NATO still keeps the door open for further memberships. But why?

Doubts about the role of the US

Basically, the situation is the same as it was 75 years ago when NATO was founded on April 4, 1949 in Washington. The free West wants to counter the growing threat from the East militarily with mutual support - under the umbrella of US nuclear weapons. The Cold War began.

"In terms of NATO's threat situation and response, everything seems to be the same as it was then. Collective defense is again the main task. There is no doubt about that," says Matthias Dembinski of the Leibniz Institute for Peace and Research of Conflicts. The essential difference compared to 1949 is that there is a strong distrust of the leading nation of NATO - the USA. If the next US president is Donald Trump, the current aid formula may become invalid. "The task that the Europeans would face in the worst hypothetical case would be twofold," said Matthias Dembinski. -s so far. This is a herculean task. Whether it will succeed is not certain."

Full of energy even after 75 years?

The current US President, Joe Biden, calls the aid formula under Article 5 of the NATO Charter "sacred and inviolable". According to her, an attack on a NATO member is an attack on all member countries. At the last NATO summit in 2023 in Vilnius, Lithuania, he described the state of the North Atlantic Alliance as follows: "Today our Alliance is a bulwark for global stability and security, as it has been for more than seven decades. NATO is stronger, more energetic and more united than ever before."

Conflict researcher Matthias Dembinski says in an interview with DW that confrontation with Russia and support for Ukraine are currently uniting the Alliance. With now 32 members and their sometimes conflicting interests, the Alliance is not always in a festive mood. "NATO has significant inertia effects. And this can always present such an alliance with an existential challenge," says Matthias Dembinski. "The interesting thing about NATO is that it has somehow survived all its crises so far - and they have been really difficult. NATO has been surprisingly adaptable to situations so far."

Pistorius wants changes

The challenge for NATO today is to move from international missions to the neglected defense of its territory, says German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, in an interview for "Deutsche Welle". We need to get back to our roots and fast. "We're turning the wheel at full speed, so to speak. Now we're stopping the direction of international crisis operations and foreign missions. We need to change direction, to national defense and the Alliance. That's going to take some time. But it's being done." more dynamic, I think."

The future of NATO will depend on the outcome of Russia's war against Ukraine, even though Ukraine is not yet a member. This is a credibility issue for the Alliance, says former NATO spokesman and communications director Jamie Shea. "Even if Ukraine manages to defeat Russia and liberate its territory, Russia will remain malicious and vindictive. It will not like NATO. Unfortunately, Russia will remain the biggest threat to NATO for many years. " /DW