The ICG report sheds light on the Pristina-Belgrade situation: Hopes are fading

2024-04-03 10:12:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The ICG report sheds light on the Pristina-Belgrade situation: Hopes are fading

Illustrative photo

The International Crisis Group said on Tuesday that Kosovo and Serbia, as well as external backers, should work to mitigate short-term risks from violence in the Serb-majority north, and then look for ways to ensure stability in the area.

In a report by this organization, which draws up independent analyzes and advice on conflict prevention, resolution and management, it is stated that "Kosovo is winning the battle for control of its Serb-majority north, while hopes for normalization between Pristina and Belgrade are are extinguished".

The remaining Serbian institutions on the territory of Kosovo, which survived the 1999 war and Kosovo's independence in 2008, the report says, are being dismantled as a result of a Serbian-backed paramilitary operation in September 2023.

"While limited violent resistance remains possible, northern Kosovo, which hoped for autonomy or union with Serbia, is reluctantly submitting to Pristina's authority. These are difficult days for the Serbian minority, whose future is vital for the rapprochement between Belgrade and Pristina", says the report, which describes the developments since 2021, the boycott of Kosovo institutions by Serbian employees in 2022, the clashes of peacekeeping forces with Serbian protesters in the spring of 2023 and the attack by a group of armed Serbs who killed a member of the Kosovo police on September 24 last year.

The report highlights the unimplemented agreement reached between the parties in February and March last year, which provided for Serbia's de facto recognition of Kosovo and more autonomy for the Serb-majority north.

The Crisis Group notes that there is little hope that EU-facilitated dialogue will ensure that the current situation between the two countries is overcome, and Belgrade-Pristina relations are likely to remain frozen.

Against this background, both parties and external actors seeking peace in the Western Balkans should turn their attention first to mitigating the short-term risk of violence and then to achievable goals that can encourage political stability if they fail to achieve progress in the normalization agreement", says the report, which describes ideas for actions in the near future.

The main advantage, the report says, is demilitarization.

"Kosovo should withdraw its special police units from Serb-majority regions and, until it does so, should deploy them sparingly and only in coordination with KFOR peacekeepers, whom northerners see as the most credible, given their commitment to a neutral approach".

It further states that in order to increase the sense of security in Pristina, KFOR should help Kosovo control its border, prevent further smuggling of heavy weapons, and detect caches of weapons sent earlier.

For its part, the report states, Serbia should stop supporting paramilitary activities and prosecute those involved in the murder of the Kosovo policeman.

"In the absence of a comprehensive political solution, the burden will be on the EU, the United States and NATO to keep the peace and avoid escalation until the conditions for a negotiated agreement are ripe. This will mean pressure on Pristina to withdraw the special police and Belgrade to take the above-mentioned steps, maintaining and, if necessary, reinforcing the NATO peacekeeping presence," the report states.

Another priority, according to the group, is meeting the needs of the Kosovo Serb minority, with or without a formal framework for autonomy.

"Northerners depend on schools, universities and health care facilities that are run by Serbia. "The majority of the population works in jobs paid directly or indirectly by Belgrade, and many receive social security, all in Serbian dinars, through a network of post offices and banks that Pristina wants to close," the report said.

The group notes that "if (Serbian citizens) lose access to jobs and benefits from Serbia, many will emigrate. The EU and the US should ask Kosovo to guarantee that these key Serbian services will remain in place. They should also continue to pressure Pristina to end the ban on food and medicine imports from Serbia, as well as on the use of the Serbian dinar. For all these issues, Kosovo should follow the leadership of the EU and the USA".

Finally, the report says, the Serbian minority needs a voice. "She has lost faith in her political representatives, who were appointed by the ruling Serbian Progressive Party in Serbia. Many of them fear Pristina and feel betrayed by Belgrade, while they feel ignored by Brussels and Washington. The EU called on Kosovo to create stable democratic institutions inclusive of its Serb minority, to no avail. Instead, Prishtina is slowly moving towards new elections in the northern municipalities. New elections should be held no later than the summer of 2024."

The group states that Brussels and Washington should continue to discuss with Pristina to see "if it can embrace the terms of the normalization agreement, including the creation of an Association of Serb-majority municipalities".

This agreement, the report says, would be good for the Serbs of the north, but also for Pristina. "The move towards northern autonomy will surely be an essential part of any agreement that integrates Kosovo more deeply into the international system, and Kosovo could never have a better offer than this." /VOA