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By Piro Ahmetaj/ The invasion of Kursk, among the 3 great humiliations of Putin in Ukraine!

2024-08-20 17:14:00, Opinione Piro Ahmetaj

By Piro Ahmetaj/ The invasion of Kursk, among the 3 great humiliations of Putin

In the capacity of Expert in the field of National Security, the Region and NATO, I followed with additional responsibility the dynamics of 900 days/nights of bloody fighting on the battlefield for/with Ukraine:

"10 conferences of the Atlantic Council, the Institute of War and panels of elite security experts/colleagues in the USA; Brussels, Marshall Center, Germany, London, NATO College Rome; as well as the last 3 Summits, mutually Madrid-2022, Vilnius-2023, Washington 2024, etc"!

I take advantage of this opportunity to bring to the public's attention that in dozens of strategic evaluations (published inside and outside the country), consistently in 2.5 years, it has been estimated/optimistized that:

"sooner or later, Putinist Russia will ignominiously lose the war to kneel or occupy the martyred Ukraine as well as stand up to Western values ??and the invincible military power of the Transatlantic Alliance (USA/NATO/UK/EU)"!

And thankfully here we are. After 2 years of semi-stoic confrontation, on July 6, 2024, the Ukrainian army launched a military attack (on a 42 km front) that was not foreseen in any of the most optimistic scenarios (including the author), so:

"a military attack organized in complete strategic surprise succeeding in conquering the Kursk region (roughly the area of ??New York City or Tirana County), territory within Russia that has served as a critical weight node for the support of criminal war machine in Ukraine".

It remains too early to gauge the full significance of Ukraine's military intervention in the Kursk region, which nevertheless marks the first time since World War II that foreign troops have invaded Russian territory. But, considering the initial reaction of Putin and other senior officials, who are continuing to try to downplay the weight of the successful Ukrainian FA offensive in Kursk, describing it as:

"a terrorist attack and an armed provocation against the sovereignty of Russia", almost all strategists admit that the geostrategic weight far exceeds the military importance.

Therefore, I also have to strongly underline, what has been confirmed by Official Kiev, that:

"Ukraine has never had and never has the intention of occupying Kursk or even one meter² of Russian territory, but remains within the right of the doctrine of sovereign defense to destroy (by any means) and take control of a from the nerve nodes of the infrastructure for the military and logistical support of the enemy (Russia - Putinist) against the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine".

Anyway, in the following, I am presenting a strategic summary: "why the Kursk invasion is one of the three humiliations, or the 3 great humiliations that Putinist Russia has suffered from February 24, 2022 - August 2024":

First humiliation (February-September 2022):

The failure of the attack of the Russian forces, or the Putinist machine, was marked from the start of the war for the occupation of Ukraine. The ignominious withdrawal of Russian forces from the vicinity of the capital Kiev in March 2022, or less than a month after the start of the neo-Nazi offensive, was followed by other military losses for the Kremlin, including the sinking of the "submarine Moskva", or pride of the flag of the Russian Fleet in the Black Sea on April 14, 2022! There could be no greater shame for Russia than losing a submarine of geostrategic weight in a war against a country with a limited/modest navy or navy!

In September and October 2022, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive to regain the strategic initiative of the war, liberating parts of the territory occupied by Russia, such as the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, self-proclaimed by Putin with "independent referendums as a vital part of the sovereignty of the country". Russia".

Moreover, the result of the first great humiliation was the isolation and secrecy of Putin in the international arena. So when Russia started the war for the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, only Kim-Jong and 4 terrorist states supported it while most analysts believed that the war would end in a few weeks or at most on May 9 "the great victory would be celebrated with flowers" , song and dance in Kiev". But by the end of 2022 (even today), the Russian war machine was "crawling/bloody and exhausted", occupying less than 19% of Ukraine's territory. In other words, Russia no longer seemed invincible, while Putin seemed even smaller than he actually is.

Beyond the Stalinist isolation, the neo-Bolshevik background and the rusty minds not only in Moscow and Belgrade, the performance of Russian military power since the end of 2022 significantly weakened Putin.

While Ukraine's kleptocrats, who dreamed of returning to the pre-war status quo, remained very disappointed. In other words, Ukraine successfully stopped the invasion of the country, while the Kremlin continued to isolate and impoverish the country, which set the stage for the next great humiliation of Putin's over-power.

The second humiliation (June-August 2023):

The second great humiliation of Putinist Russia came not only from Ukraine's stoic resistance and the West's unconditional support, but also from within the Kremlin's criminal machinery. The rebellion in June 2023 by Prigozh and the army of mercenaries around him (the Wagner Group), exposed deep cracks in the political elite and the cohesion of the Russian nation around the war; demonstrated the decay of army morale as well as within the chain of command of the Russian Armed Forces.

That Prigozhin, a close friend of Putin's since 1990, would launch a rebellion against the Kremlin illustrated the dangers of "entrepreneurial politics," that is, handing over national security and defense responsibilities to private sector actors, or the Putinist oligarchy. These paramilitary (non-official) structures would have worked well only if the Russian leader had continued to be strong. While this case showed that Putin was weak, that's why the situation got out of control until it degraded to Prigozhin's (Wagner Group) rebellion.

And the fact that Prigozhin could take control of the city of Rostov-on-Don to a hero's welcome and march his mercenaries north to the outskirts of Voronezh, roughly 300 miles from Moscow, stung him even more. Putin's ship of (without) omnipotence.

Prigozhin, of course, paid the price for the rebellion, dying in an "air crash" along with his close staff (9 people), including Wagner co-founder Dmitry Utkin, on August 23, 2023. But according to Western intelligence sources, the crash was no accident, but a well-orchestrated assassination attempt by Putin's senior aide Nikolai Patrushev. However, this story cuts across both sides.

Thus, Putin's second great humiliation not only deepened the divisions in Russia's political and governing elite exposed by the non-occupation of Ukraine, but also the fundamental weakness of the armed forces in fulfilling the constitutional mission: "defense of the motherland"! This, on the other hand, created the ground for the next humiliation, certainly the biggest but not the last of Russia - Putinist.

The Third Great Humiliation (August 6, 2024):

The operation of the occupation of the Kursk region by the Ukrainian FA was planned and executed in strict strategic secrecy, bringing a great shock to the fortunes of the war. Instead of the constant (disinformation) media noise about some operational victories of the Russian army in Donbas, the New York Times sarcastically called the occupation of Kursk: "a fraud and a gamble by the Ukrainian troops".

From the mass surrender of Russian troops and the chaotic evacuation of civilians, to the advances of Ukrainian forces deeper (about 25 km) into Russian territory, the Kursk operation exposed the weakness not only of the FA and the Russian state, but also as a warning of the end of the Russian - Putinist empire.

During his (Putin's) rule of about a quarter of a century, the Putin regime's contract with the solidarity of society and the cohesion of the Russian nation has been based on the restoration of the greatness and imperial ambitions lost after the 1990s. But along with the "occupation of Kursk ” it seems that Putin's government/regime has (badly) failed in fulfilling the basic responsibilities of any normal state: “protecting the territorial integrity and its citizens from foreign invasion”. While the fact that Putin has tasked one of his former bodyguards, Alexei Dyum (whom the Russian media calls Russia's "shadow defense minister") to end the offensive in Ukraine, demonstrates the panic as well as the fate of to the recently appointed defense minister (Belousov), who seems to have (badly) disappointed the Kremlin: "as he did not show himself up to the task"!

However, the circumstances, scale and military consequences of Krusk's daring attack/invasion of Ukraine are still incomplete. It may even turn out, as former US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried commented: "a George Washington crossing the Delaware River (1776)"!

While in a clever post Australian General ® Mick Ryan pointed out that after this successful incursion, Ukraine has 2 options: “(a) try to keep the territory it has captured inside Russia (Kursk), or (b) withdraw in Ukraine after having achieved the political goal of humiliating the strategic superiority of the Kremlin in the war". On the other hand, Putin is also facing a very difficult choice if he will have to withdraw (as is actually happening) ground troops from the front in eastern Ukraine to retake Russian territory in the Kursk region!?

Regardless of the military scenarios, political damage has been caused and has its roots not only in military impotence but primarily in the Kremlin's neo-Stalinist policy. That being said, the Russian state "under the occupation of Putin (KGB)" essentially resembles the characteristics of an organized crime organization, as the strategy, approach, weaponry and military threats are the same as those of a mafia family. While, as is known, the most destabilizing moment, as well as behaving like a "wounded beast", for a criminal gang is when the mafia boss looks weak...!

Having seen the above, we repeat that the battle of Kursk, from that of the glory of the Red Army 81 years ago (July 12, 1943), this time (August 6, 2024) will mark not only the beginning of the roll towards defeat shameful of the war that awaits Putin in Ukraine (a nation of martyrs and a sovereign country), but also of kneeling and humiliation in the face of military power as well as democratic values, credibility and geopolitical interests of the Transatlantic Alliance (USA/NATO/EU)!

In addition, it would be unfair not to welcome the relevant efforts of Albania, as a result of the representation alongside the USA in the Security Council/UN; the active role and unconditional support of decision-making in NATO, as well as the more than modest contributions that RSh has given to Ukraine over the past 30 months in this "life or death" confrontation with the common evil.

However, with the status of an expert for weighing the risks and opportunities of (after) the war, I would advise the political and state factors of Tirana that: "the shameful loss of the war, the international discretization as well as the economic collapse that awaits Russia - Putinist (as a result and the weight of Serbia in the Balkans) constitutes a golden geopolitical circumstance in favor of the factoring of RS at the tables of major decision-making (USA/NATO/EU) to protect and develop national interests in the region, the Mediterranean, etc.!

May God bless the victory in Ukraine, the military power of NATO, the democratic values ??and the Euro-Atlantic future of the Albanian Nation, like the USA and all of Europe.

Author: General ® Piro Ahmetaj:

Expert for SK, the Region and NATO,

Vice President of the Atlantic Council; & ex:

Advisor for National Security in DP,

Advisor to the President of the RS; Deputy Minister of Defense,

Military Representative in SHAPE/NATO./ CNA