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Turkey and Turkmenistan have agreed to cooperate on a major natural gas export deal that analysts say enables Ankara to become a major energy hub and eases Europe's energy deficit. But as Voice of America correspondent Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul, Moscow can harm these aspirations of Turkey.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Turkmen counterpart, Serdar Berdimuhamedow, recently met in the Turkish coastal city of Antalya, where an agreement was signed to begin cooperation to export Turkmenistan's gas to Turkey.
Turkmenistan is home to one of the world's largest natural gas reserves, and analysts say tapping into it could play a key role in helping Ankara achieve its goal of becoming a major energy hub in the region.
"Turkey is located in the geographical position between energy-producing countries, energy-rich countries, and a very large market of 500 million, which is Europe. The objective is to become a trading center for natural gas. To achieve this, we need to import more gas than we consume, so that we have enough additional natural gas to trade and export," says Mithat Rende, former ambassador of Turkey to Qatar.
Turkmenistan wants to diversify its main market, which is currently China.
At the same time, Russia's frontal attack on Ukraine has prompted Europe to look for other alternatives to Russian gas.
However, analysts warn that transporting Turkmenistan's gas to Turkey requires Moscow's cooperation to build a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea.
"You can sign all the deals you want, but without a clear understanding and support from Moscow, it won't happen as it has to go through the Caspian to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, following the same route that is used to export oil crude, or gas from Azerbaijan. The other option is through Iran", says Mehmet Ogutcu, from the Energy Club of London.
Moscow has discouraged Turkey's energy aspirations by trying to monopolize sales to Europe. However, with Western sanctions excluding Russian gas from the European market, Moscow is already trying to sell it to China.
Analysts say improved ties between Ankara and Washington could force Russian President Vladimir Putin to tolerate and even help Turkey's aspirations.
"If the Russian side decides they want to open up some of these mechanisms to Turkey, keeping Turkey close and continuing to be friendly with gifts, then they can say yes," says Yoruk Isik, of the Middle East Institute. .
Analysts say Mr. Erdogan's objective to make Istanbul a hub for energy trade will depend on how the Turkish leader will balance relations with Moscow and Western allies./ VOA
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