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Radical transformation of the USA under Trump's Republicans?

2024-11-11 08:45:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

With the deep victory of their candidate, the Republicans have big projects for the restructuring of the state apparatus in the USA. What control mechanisms, the so-called "checks and balances" will remain?

"This day will forever be remembered as the day the American people took back control" - said Donald Trump in his victory speech, recalling his promise to "change" the country. The US moved sharply to the right of the spectrum on election day - Republicans, who are aligned with Donald Trump's MAGA "Make America Great Again" movement, now also hold a majority in the Senate. In the House of Representatives, they are also likely to retain their majority after all precincts are counted. So it's Trump's MAGA movement that has "taken back control" - which since before the election had announced big plans for how it wants to use this power.

Trump better prepared than in 2016

The big difference from Trump's election victory in 2016 is that he is much better prepared this time, says Stormy-Annika Mildner, director of the independent think tank Aspen Institute, Germany. "Trump has learned that it can be problematic for him if he has non-loyalists in his team," Mildner told DW. He can only be expected to surround himself with true supporters. "And because of the extensive exchange of officials in the ministries and authorities below, there will no longer be an important factor that existed from 2016 to 2020: that is, people who prevented something worse from happening at one point or another." "Project 2025"

Mildner expects the "Project 2025" strategic document, which was made public in the summer, to play a major role. Trump had officially distanced himself from the manifesto of the conservative think tank "Heritage Foundation". But research by US media suggests that at least some of his MAGA followers were involved in the manifesto. As a result of the change of government, they may climb to positions of influence.

Trump endorsed the central demands of the 2025 project during the election campaign: his suggestions for migration policy and border protection correspond to those of the foundation - during the election campaign, Trump promised "the largest deportation operation in American history". He also wants to significantly increase the use of climate-damaging fossil fuels and reduce environmental regulations.

The modification of the state starts from the institutions

Federal authorities - such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) - will be a major lever for the implementation of such plans. The 32-page chapter on the EPA in the "Project 2025" strategy document comes from Mandy Gunasekara, the agency's chief of staff during Trump's first presidency, who is now being considered as the likely next leader. At the time, the EPA's powers were curtailed and many employees were laid off — which the Biden administration largely reversed. In Trump's second term in office, the goal is to "remove and rebuild" the agency's structures, the New York Times quoted Gunasekara as saying.

USA, Coal Power Plant, Dave Johnson, Wyoming, Smoke from power plant stacks in a sunset viewUSA, Coal Power Plant, Dave Johnson, Wyoming, Smoke from power plant stacks in a sunset view.

Expert Stormy-Annika Mildner says: "You can use authorities that belong to the executive branch, such as the Environment Agency, to regulate in the public interest. Or you can block them by giving them bosses who just say, 'This we don't anymore.''This is to be expected in the area of ??climate protection. On the other hand, Trump can use the authorities to issue regulations with great effect - for example regarding illegal immigration and security border or the promotion of fossil fuels."

It's also eagerly awaited who Trump will put in charge of the Justice Department — the very Justice Department that Trump has said he wants to use to prosecute political opponents. Public broadcaster NPR counted more than 100 such threats during the election campaign. It's not just public prosecutors being politicized — after a four-year hiatus, but Trump's MAGA movement now has free rein to fill top judicial posts with conservatives. Republicans hold a majority in the Senate, which will agree to it, at least until the midterm elections in late 2026. In Trump's first term in office, 234 justices were appointed — including three to the Supreme Court.

Reuters news agency quotes George Washington University law professor John Collins: "In his first term, Trump reshaped the federal judiciary. Now he has the opportunity to cement that vision for an entire generation."

Republicans will want to carry out a major restructuring of the state within the rules set by the constitution. Mildner believes the constitution itself should remain intact — because constitutional changes are complicated and could also hurt Republicans if they're back in opposition at some point.

There are still "Checks and Balances"

Even if the White House, Congress and the Supreme Court are all conservative, Mildner is confident that other institutions — the media, for example — will fulfill their function of checks and balances. And democratically governed states are also preparing for bitter political disputes. New York Governor Kathy Hochul addressed Trump directly: "If you try to harm New Yorkers or limit their rights, I will fight your every move."

Mildner credits the United States with a lot of resilience and crisis resilience. "So I wouldn't definitively say that this is the end of American democracy," she told DW. However, the divide between the two camps will not be bridged under Trump's leadership, on the contrary: "These four years will contribute to the polarization continuing to grows"./ DW