CNN poll: The eight states that will determine the winner of the US election

2024-08-18 19:33:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris to the Democratic leadership has dramatically reshaped the 2024 electoral map since earlier this year, when the race appeared to be between an unpopular and aging incumbent and the former president he defeated four years earlier. first.

CNN's "Path to 270" electoral map shows a positive trend for Harris and suggests she has more potential paths to 270 electoral votes than President Joe Biden had when he was the Democratic front-runner.

This current outlook returns the state of the race to where it was in the final days of the 2020 campaign, with seven battleground states as the central terrain where candidates and their campaigns will spend most of their time trying to win the White House. .

CNN's previous election view had former President Donald Trump with a clear lead in seeking 270 electoral votes. That advantage has disappeared with Harris' entry into the race and her rapid success in unifying the Democratic Party and regaining political strength in several key areas that have been part of recent winning coalitions for Democratic candidates.

Despite the change in momentum, it is important to note that this race has become a margin of error race with no clear current leader. Both Trump and Harris have multiple viable paths to 270 electoral votes.

Trump now has 24 states (and one congressional district in Maine) leaning toward his lead, which gives him a total of 219 electoral votes, 51 votes short of the 270 needed to win.

For her part, Harris has 19 states plus the District of Columbia either strongly in her favor or leaning her way, bringing her electoral vote total to 225, 45 votes short of her 270 votes. needed to win.

CNN based this map on public and private polls, conversations with campaign advisers, Republican and Democratic political operatives, members of Congress and political professionals involved with outside groups willing to be active in the race.

Safe states for Republicans (TOTAL: 188 electoral votes)

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas ( 40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)

Republicans lead: (TOTAL: 31 electoral votes)

Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1)

States where the winner is not known: (TOTAL: 94 electoral votes)

Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)

Democrats lead: (TOTAL: 50 electoral votes)

Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13)

Democratic safe states: (TOTAL: 175 electoral votes)

California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14) , New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)./ CNA