China's economic problems are mounting

2023-07-31 09:14:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The corona pandemic is also "over" in China, but China is far from the planned rate of economic growth. While the economic growth in the first quarter was 2.2%, in the second quarter the economy is limping: officially the growth is only 0.8%, but Economists polled by Reuters estimate that growth was weaker, at only 0.5%.

"The data shows that China's rapid economic growth has ended after the pandemic," says economist Carol Kong of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "What we're seeing now is weak, limping growth."

Without a doubt, if you compare the economic growth in the last 12 months is enviable, at 6.3%. But the party's task for the economy was to achieve an increase of 5% this year, which will be very difficult to achieve.

A year to be forgotten

Although official estimates of economic growth can be expected to decrease, economic experts estimate that China - not for the first time - will use some kind of economic doping. "We expect that in the coming months there will be monetary relief. Targeted fiscal support is expected for the main areas, among others in the real estate market and in construction," Goldman Sachs economists estimate. "But even these additional supports do not will be some magic wand: 2023 will be for China a year it would rather forget."

The Chinese economy depends on exports, including the German market, and this country also has big problems. In June, Chinese exports posted a record decline since the outbreak of the pandemic three years ago. Another additional problem is the real estate market, which accounts for a quarter of China's gross domestic product. Reuters agency experts declare that this area of ??the economy is melting like snow under the July sun. In June there was a decrease of 20.6%, while in May the decrease was 21.5%.

There are no jobs for young people

Çka është më e keqja, po bie edhe konsumi i brendshëm. Në maj, shitjet me pakicë u rritën me 12.7%, ndërsa në qershor me vetëm 3.1%. Meqenëse kompanitë kineze po shohin se mallrat nuk po shiten, ato nuk kanë vullnet të punësojnë bashkëpunëtorë të rinj. Shkalla e papunësisë tek të rinjtë në Kinë ka arritur në nivelin prej 21.3% muajin e kaluar, që më parë ka qenë e paparamendueshme.

Është e qartë se një rritje e tillë e dobët ekonomike do të prekë të gjithë rajonin e Azisë Juglindore si një efekt domino, por jo vetëm këtë rajon. Gjermaniashpresonte një këndellje shumë më të shpejtë të ekonomisë kineze në mënyrë që - me gjithë presionet politike, veçanërisht nga Uashingtoni - të llogarisë më shumë me tregun kinez, i cili tradicionalisht kërkon shumë produkte cilësore gjermane. Por gjendja nuk po zhvillohet sipas pritjeve. Këtë e kanë kuptuar edhe kompanitë gjermane. Sipas një studimi të Dhomës Ekonomike, gjysma e tyre presin një shkëmbim të njëjtë si vitin e kaluar, e shumë prej tyre presin edhe një rënie të lehtë.

In the first five months of this year, German exports to China have fallen by almost ten percent to 40.6 billion euros. But in general, German exports have increased during this period by 4.5%, which means that the German economy is also reorienting and does not seek salvation only in the Chinese market./ DW