Scholz goes to Biden: The topic is Trump

2024-02-08 12:56:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

In front of the American President Joe Biden, Chancellor Scholz can boast about the recent decision of the European Union to help Ukraine with a total amount of 50 billion euros until 2027. "It is a good message in the direction of the USA", he thinks the German chancellor.

On the other hand, US President Biden promised Ukraine that he would support it in the fight against Russia "as long as it takes", but he has already exhausted the available options without the approval of the aid fund in Congress and the Senate. Aid to Ukraine has now turned into a race of Republicans against President Biden.

"Why? For one simple reason: Donald Trump. Because Donald Trump thinks it hurts him politically," Joe Biden fumed. Washington knows Ukraine is dependent on American aid. "The clock is ticking every week, every month that passes without new aid," said Biden, adding that only Vladimir Putin benefits from this.

Germany does not have the power of the USA

With the European 50 billion, Olaf Scholz wants to use a positive example to push American congressmen so that the blockade in Washington ends. "Nothing will come of it," reckons Henning Hof of the German Society for Foreign Policy. "Republicans from the calculation of the pre-election battle are not ready to help the Biden administration. For now, it seems that the US will completely give up support for Ukraine."

The US has been by far the largest arms supplier to Kiev. Ukrainian President Zelensky wants Germany to take a leading role. The German chancellor has warned his fellow citizens that Germany may have to intervene for the US. This year, the German budget foresees more than seven billion euros in aid to Ukraine, but if the US withdraws, there may be an even greater burden on the already overburdened German coffers.

The chancellor warns: Germany is a middle military power and cannot compensate for the lack of a superpower like the USA. "Germany certainly cannot bear this responsibility alone," admits the opposition leader of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Mertz.

The only option is the unity of the European Union, but even that is compromised. Even these fifty billion euros of aid barely overcame the opposition of Hungary and Slovakia. Opposition to aid to Ukraine is also growing in Germany, and this may be evident in the European Parliament elections in June, as well as in German state elections. First of all, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is against it, but also the newly founded party "Sara Wagenknecht Alliance" criticizes aid to Ukraine and demands concessions to Russia.

Will Ukraine join NATO?

Scholz and Biden fully agree that Ukraine's accession to NATO is not yet on the agenda. This will most likely be officially said at the NATO high-level meeting this summer in Washington. The supporters of the admission are primarily the Baltic states, but also Poland. But the US president warned last year against Ukraine's possible "premature" accession to NATO, partly because Kiev is "not ready yet".

The American Foreign Minister, Anthony Blinken, during the meeting with the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, declared that Ukraine "will be a member of NATO", but he did not say anything about when this will be. Especially in among senior NATO members, there is a widespread belief that Ukraine can be accepted, but only after the end of the war. Otherwise, the mutual military support clause of the agreement would have to come into force immediately, which practically means a new world war.

But this option is extremely dangerous, according to former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. "Essentially, it gives Putin the ability to veto and at the same time opens the door entirely to continuing hostility toward Ukraine without any limits," writes the Foreign Policy portal.

But the main question is who will be in the White House after the American elections this November. Scholz will talk to Biden, with whom he has minor disagreements. But they cannot be compared to the position that Donald Trump had - and still has.

It is clear to Berlin that it is quite realistic that Trump will be the American president again, but Scholz still does not intend to meet with him during this visit. At least in this he has the support of the citizens of Germany. According to the YouGov poll, 55 percent of respondents consider this position to be correct. While only 52 percent of respondents believe that the German government is preparing sufficiently for Trump's possible return to power.

How much damage can there be?

Donald Trump has already shown in his first term that he is impulsive in his decisions and unpredictable. During the two meetings between Trump and Putin, there was not really the cordiality that might have been expected, but it is even less likely that Trump will support Zelensky and Ukraine. The former US president accused Germany and other NATO members of spending significantly less than the projected two percent of gross domestic product. But this year, Germany will allocate even more than that for defense.

His second charge was the German trade surplus with the US, but now that too is significantly smaller due to Germany's economic difficulties. Especially under these circumstances, Trump's assertion that the entire NATO is "unnecessary" and that the US has no intention of staying in that alliance, where it gives more than it benefits, does not stand.

The German foreign policy expert warns that this policy should not depend on the occupants of the White House, because the US withdrawal from NATO must be approved by a two-thirds majority in Congress - which is highly unlikely to happen. .

He warns that Trump would still have many options to cut US involvement in the military alliance, starting with the US security guarantee for Europe. While the Europeans are still poorly prepared: "The situation is serious and we see that difficult times are coming." /DW