Why might an attack on Iran be more dangerous than capturing Maduro?

2026-02-21 22:36:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

When US President Donald Trump declared in January that an American "army" was heading towards Iran, he compared it to the force used in the US military's rapid operation in Venezuela, saying it was able to quickly accomplish its mission.

Now, as the US president is considering various options against the Iranian government, including limited strikes, experts warn that an attack on Iran would be much more complicated than an operation in Venezuela and could involve the United States in a long-term conflict.

First, Iran maintains an “axis of resistance” of forces across the Middle East, including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. It has armed and strengthened these groups to extend its influence and challenge adversaries in the region. Although many of these organizations have been significantly weakened, they could launch counterattacks against U.S. forces and their allies, opening multiple fronts and expanding the conflict beyond Iran’s borders.

On another level, while Venezuela's airspace was relatively undefended before the US strike in January, Iran has one of the largest and most diverse missile stockpiles in the Middle East, according to experts. Its arsenal includes drones and anti-ship weapons, although the exact number of missiles remains unclear after the 12-day war with Israel in June.

At the same time, Gulf states, which host several US bases, worry that a US strike could trigger retaliation against them. In January, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, close US allies, declared that they would not allow their airspace to be used for attacks. However, experts estimate that this stance may not protect them from Iranian retaliation.

The Iranian government is a theocratic one, with supreme power vested in the supreme leader. This power is guaranteed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful military body with around 150,000 members, which promotes the regime's authoritarian agenda.

In Venezuela, the United States captured Nicolas Maduro and his wife in a carefully coordinated operation that lasted a little over two hours. In Iran, overthrowing the government would not be so simple. The real power in the country is based on ideology, supported by radical political elements, and strengthened by a complex power structure that has been consolidated for almost half a century.

Tehran is located about 600 kilometers inland from the Persian Gulf. This makes it more difficult for American forces to reach and capture the Iranian leadership, compared with the operation in Caracas, which was only about 15 miles from the Caribbean./New York Times