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New index reveals countries in the "red zone" of climate sensitivity, two of them in Europe

2025-06-26 17:00:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

New index reveals countries in the "red zone" of climate sensitivity,

A new index has identified the countries most vulnerable to climate shocks.

More than two billion people live in 'red zone' countries, where the risk of a major hazard or disaster is high and access to finance is decreasing, the report reveals.

Two-thirds of the 65 countries on the most at-risk list are in Africa, but the index also includes two countries in Europe, Cyprus and Ukraine.

Built by the Columbia Climate School in the US with support from the Rockefeller Foundation, the Climate Finance Vulnerability Index (CliF) aims to provide more comprehensive risk assessments and ultimately help direct aid to those most in need.

How does debt increase climate vulnerability?

“Climate shocks are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many of the nations facing the highest threats are also mired in huge debt, limiting their access to financial markets,” says Jeff Schlegelmilch, Associate Professor of Climate Professional Practice and Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia’s Climate School.

Heat waves, floods, cyclones, droughts and other extreme events are all on the rise as the climate warms.

Although predictions are full of uncertainty, these climate disasters could result in more than 14.5 million deaths and $12.5 trillion (about 10.7 trillion euros) in global economic losses by 2050, according to the World Economic Forum.

Meanwhile, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that the annual adaptation financing gap - the amount that countries need to adapt to climate change - could be as much as $387 billion (€331 billion) per year.

At the same time, high borrowing costs and limited access to finance keep many nations locked in a cycle of response and recovery to climate disasters, researchers say.

Eric Pelofsky, Vice President for Global Economic Recovery at the Rockefeller Foundation, says the index is an important starting point for discussions ahead of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development in Seville next week.

“By using the CliF Vulnerability Index, donors and funders can prioritize support for countries that are potentially one disaster away from crisis.”

Why are Cyprus and Ukraine 'red zone' countries?

The Red Zone is dominated by countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, which account for 43 (66 percent) of the 65 countries in the risk zone where climate vulnerability and financial fragility overlap.

The index makes four predictions for each country: using a 2050 or 2080 timeframe, as well as 'optimistic' and 'pessimistic' climate scenarios.

10 African countries appear in the bottom 10 in all four scenarios: Angola, Burundi, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, Lesotho, Malawi, South Sudan, Sudan and Zambia.

Saliem Fakir, Executive Director of the African Climate Foundation, says the index complements his work supporting “more systematic approaches to adaptation in Africa for countries suffering from high debt problems.”

Ukraine and Cyprus also appear in the red zone; Cyprus in the optimistic 2050, pessimistic 2050 and pessimistic 2080 scenarios. Ukraine in the optimistic 2050 and optimistic 2080 scenarios.

This is largely due to non-climatic risks, which are nevertheless included in the data. Cyprus is prone to earthquakes, while the conflict in Ukraine makes it vulnerable.

These factors affect disaster management, climate adaptation systems and pressures on finances, explains a spokesperson for the Columbia Climate School and the Rockefeller Foundation.

European nations are better represented on the list of nations best equipped to deal with climate shocks. Eight of the top 10 countries are OECD members, and half are in Europe: Denmark, Estonia, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, as well as South Korea, Japan and the US./ CNA





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