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Dutch researchers have collected data on more than 40 Russian intelligence operations in Europe in 2024. In 2021, before the invasion of Ukraine, there were only three. What are Moscow's goals?

Sabotage against Western arms shipments to Ukraine, pro-Russian propaganda, even assassinations: the list of Russian intelligence operations in Europe is getting longer and longer. Since the start of the war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, the number of cases has steadily increased, according to a study by the Dutch University of Leiden.

The project leader, Bart Schuurman, sees the team's study as a "wake-up call" for politics in Europe, writes Schuurman. The security expert heads the Research Group on Terrorism and Political Violence at Leiden University.

Terrorist attacks against aviation

Russia is not only responsible for "considerable damage to European energy and telecommunications infrastructure," but also for "terrorist attacks on civil aviation and threats to public services that could endanger thousands of people," Schuurman said.

The arson attack on an air cargo container belonging to the German logistics company DHL, shortly before it was to be loaded onto a plane, shows that the suspected Russian organizers are prepared to accept the risk of personal injury. As in the Cold War, Russia is using the full range of intelligence measures, says Gerhard Conrad, a former agent of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), in an interview with DW. It is about "intimidation of the population" as well as "espionage activities against militarily important targets, from the arms industry to Bundeswehr bases," says Conrad.

New phenomenon: Recruitment of available agents

What is new is the recruitment of so-called "disposable agents," says Conrad. These are often Russian sympathizers, recruited in EU countries for money to cause unrest. If such agents are exposed, the damage to Russian intelligence services is minimal. In Germany, ahead of elections to the national parliament, the Bundestag, an increasing number of such illegal actions by non-professional saboteurs came to light. But Russia is now also recruiting such amateur spies to spy on military bases using drones.

Threat from 2014

The growing threat from Russia has been evident “not just since 2022,” says former agent Conrad, “but at least since 2014.” At that time, Russia annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea after the pro-European Maidan revolution and sent troops to the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

Conrad, a former BND employee, is convinced that people in Europe should be aware that the threat from Russia will not end tomorrow. Germany and Europe must prepare for a long-term "defense against hybrid threats."

EU countries not only need to improve their military capabilities, but also their intelligence services. "To do this, they need a lot of personnel, they need a lot of technical capabilities, even legal capabilities, to identify these structures, these attack patterns, from the very beginning," explains Conrad. Only in this way can Russia's hybrid attacks be detected from the very beginning./ DW