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Is Germany on the verge of a political turning point?

2025-02-23 17:21:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The election campaign in Germany was short but fierce. One word that was often repeated was: change course. The poll leader, the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz, declared two weeks before the election:

"You tried to do left-wing politics in Germany for three years. You can't continue like this anymore . "

In November last year, the German parliament was dissolved after months of debate. For this reason, the country went to early elections, held today (February 23, 2025).
According to polls, Friedrich Merz has the best chance of winning the chancellorship. Merz leads the CDU/CSU Union, which is seeking to return to power after 4 years in opposition. In second place in the polls is the AfD with 20% of the vote.

The SPD and FDP have both suffered significant declines. The FDP risks falling short of the 5% threshold, while the SPD faces a historic defeat. Any result below 20% would be the party's worst in post-war history – and polls show it well short of that threshold.

How did the SPD fall and the AfD rise?
The CDU's chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz, explains this by the economic downturn. According to him, "our national economy is now the last in the European Union." 50,000 companies have declared bankruptcy and around 100 billion euros of business capital is leaving the country every year. "Our economy is shrinking, we are in recession for the third year in a row. This has never happened before in the post-war history of Germany."
According to Merz, Scholz and his economics minister, Robert Habeck, who is running as the Greens' chancellor candidate, "no longer understand reality." "Do you know what you look like to me?" he addressed his opponents. "Like two employed directors who have led a company to bankruptcy and are now telling the owners: We want to keep it going for another four years."

AfD ready for coalition with CDU/CSU
The weakening economy was one of the most discussed topics during the election campaign. But after a deadly knife attack by a rejected asylum seeker in Aschaffenburg, the migration issue came to the fore. Friedrich Merz called for tougher asylum policy and warned that, if necessary, he would support it with the AfD votes.

AfD MPs enthusiastically welcomed the fact that, at the end of January, a CDU/CSU motion for stricter asylum regulations was accepted for consideration in the Bundestag.

Merz rules out coalition with AfD

Hundreds of thousands of citizens took to the streets to protest against the growing influence of the far right in Germany. Scholz also criticized the conservatives' cooperation with the AfD. "It is not unimportant whether you cooperate with right-wing extremists or not. Not in Germany!" he said. In subsequent television debates, Friedrich Merz categorically ruled out any possibility of cooperation with the AfD. According to him, the AfD's goal is to destroy the CDU/CSU and a coalition with the AfD will never happen.

Who can form the new government?
But Merz will not have enough votes to govern without a coalition partner. The more parties enter the Bundestag, the more complicated the relations and the formation of a government become. The left is expected to reach the threshold of entering parliament, while the new BSW party and the FDP are at risk. If the FDP enters the Bundestag, a three-party government will probably be needed. But the FDP liberals have said they do not want to enter a coalition with the Greens again, leaving only an alliance between the CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP as an option. If the FDP or BSW do not enter parliament, the other possibilities are a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD or between the CDU/CSU and the Greens.