The election of a new Hamas leader dims hopes for a cease-fire in Gaza

2024-08-08 20:47:56, Kosova & Bota CNA

The election of a new Hamas leader dims hopes for a cease-fire in Gaza

A poster with the photo of new Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar at the Bourj al-Barajneh Palestinian refugee camp in Beirut, Lebanon, on August 8, 2024/Reuters

The leader of the militant group Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to have planned the October 7 attack on Israel, was appointed as the political and military leader operating in Gaza. Analysts say it is unlikely he will reach a Gaza ceasefire deal with Israel and release the hostages, but a spokesman for the group says the militant leader will continue negotiations.

Analyst Nicholas Heras at the Washington-based New Lines Institute told Voice of America that the selection of Yahya Sinwari as the new political leader of Hamas proves that the center of decision-making is Gaza and not Qatar, where the militant group's political base was. .

"Hamas is making a very clear statement to the world, not just Israel, the United States, Qatar and Egypt, that the road to Hamas goes through Gaza and that basically Hamas is showing its willingness to fight to the bitter end, no only for its own survival as an organization, but from his point of view, for the future of the Palestinians. Hamas is sending signals to the Israelis and all those who work with them, that there is no way to separate Gaza and the future of Gaza from Hamas," says analyst Heras.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says it is now in the hands of Yahya Sinwar to reach a ceasefire agreement to end the 10-month conflict in Gaza because he "was and continues to be the main decision maker." This means that he was a decision-maker even when the chief negotiator of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, who was considered relatively more moderate, was alive.

Hamas expert Khaleb Hroub at Northwestern University in Qatar told the French newspaper Le Monde that "if Israel, the United States and their allies in the region and beyond hoped to defeat Hamas by force, the response would be be an even more radical Hamas."

He says he does not think the militant group will soften its stance, while Washington and Qatar are trying to reach a deal in hopes of de-escalating the current escalation between Israel and Iran.

The expert of the Persian Gulf countries at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Cinzia Bianco, told the Voice of America that for eight months Qatar has been trying to reach an agreement, but in fact Hamas receives directives from Iran.

“They only answer to Iran and maybe their other backers to some extent, Russia and China as well. The political cause and the military cause have now become one. This means that Qatar's influence is now smaller," says expert Bianco.

American and Israeli intelligence officials told the New York Times that Yahya Sinwar's strategy is to "continue the war in Gaza as long as possible to destroy Israel's international reputation and damage relations with his with the United States, his main ally.”

Analyst Heras says the Hamas leader is influenced by the slain general of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Qassem Soleimani, and is using his strategy against Israel.

According to him, "Soleimani developed an entire strategy to create a network of groups acting at the behest of Iran and its partners surrounding Israel," including Hamas, to aim for its destruction.

"Over a period of time, the ongoing wars with Israel will undermine Israel's foundations economically, socially, politically and then geopolitically. All these elements were present in the current conflict that Hamas started on October 7, 2023. And we are seeing that Soleimani's strategy continues to be implemented,” he said.

Observers say that according to them, Hamas leader Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are not ready to reach a ceasefire agreement for their own political interests./ VOA